Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

FC Santiago

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chilpancingo play FC Santiago in the Liga Premier Serie A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chilpancingo averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. FC Santiago averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Chilpancingo won 0, FC Santiago won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 24, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Chilpancingo and 1.81 for FC Santiago. This points to a FC Santiago double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Chilpancingo

27%

Draws

42%

FC Santiago

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: FC Santiago

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Chilpancingo picked up more points recently compared to FC Santiago.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 1.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Chilpancingo Clean Sheet 11%

FC Santiago Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chilpancingo	FC Santiago
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	15
Draws	8	9
Losses	10	6
Goals Scored	1.3	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.5	0.93
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Chilpancingo vs FC Santiago

Possession: 51% - 55% Cards: 0 - 1

1:1

Sep 6, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

FC Santiago vs Chilpancingo

Possession: 48% - 56% Cards: 4 - 3

3:0

Mar 30, 2024 Liga Premier Serie B

Chilpancingo vs FC Santiago

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 0 - 4

1:2

Oct 28, 2023 Liga Premier Serie B

FC Santiago vs Chilpancingo

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 3 - 4

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chilpancingo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cortez F.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

FC Santiago Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramos R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chilpancingo 30 / 100

FC Santiago 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chilpancingo FC Santiago

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Santiago or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chilpancingo attacking → ← attacking FC Santiago

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chilpancingo scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

FC Santiago let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Chilpancingo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FC Santiago lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 54

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17