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Stadium Background

China vs Indonesia

World World

World Championship 2026 Qingdao Youth Football Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

China play Indonesia in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, China averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Indonesia averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, China won 3, Indonesia won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 5, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for China and 1.44 for Indonesia. This points to a Indonesia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
China
20%
Draws
41%
Indonesia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Indonesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • China picked up more points recently compared to Indonesia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
China Clean Sheet 16%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric China Indonesia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.9 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2025 World Championship
Indonesia vs China
1:0
Oct 15, 2024 World Championship
China vs Indonesia
2:1
Nov 15, 2013 Asian Cup
China vs Indonesia
1:0
Oct 15, 2013 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs China
1:1
Jul 21, 2004 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs China
0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

China Compare

Top Goalscorer Abduweli Behram
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zhang Yuning
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Indonesia Compare

Top Goalscorer Haye T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

China 38 / 100
Indonesia 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
China Indonesia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Indonesia or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

China attacking → ← attacking Indonesia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

China scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Indonesia let in goals in 52% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

China went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Indonesia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 39
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

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PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
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