Sport Picks
Match Events
36'
36'
Tuntulwana S.
39'
39'
Calveley M.
43'
43'
Burton K.
AI Match Summary
Buxton in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Buxton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chorley
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Buxton have won more games recently than Chorley.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Buxton have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Chorley Clean Sheet 16%
Buxton Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chorley | Buxton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 16 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 14 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 24, 2026 National League North
Chorley vs Buxton
2:3
Mar 14, 2026 National League North
Chorley vs Buxton
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Chorley
3:2
Apr 18, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Chorley
1:0
Feb 4, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Buxton
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chorley Compare
Top Goalscorer Calveley M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Blakeman A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Buxton Compare
Top Goalscorer Tuntulwana S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Burton K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chorley 30 / 100
Buxton 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chorley Buxton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chorley Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Chorley found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Buxton conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Recent resilience: Chorley stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Chorley VS Buxton
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Chorley
(Home) 24 Oct
Chorley
2 : 3 Buxton
20 Oct
Worcester
1 : 0 Chorley
17 Oct
Chorley
1 : 1 Worcester
10 Oct
Chorley
2 : 1 Telford
03 Oct
Barton Town
1 : 4 Chorley
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Chorley
2 : 3 Buxton
17 Oct
Chorley
1 : 1 Worcester
10 Oct
Chorley
2 : 1 Telford
26 Sept
Chorley
2 : 1 Spalding United
08 Sept
Chorley
5 : 2 Darlington FC
Page 1 of 3
Buxton
(Away) 24 Oct
Chorley
2 : 3 Buxton
17 Oct
Buxton
2 : 2 Worksop
10 Oct
King’s Lynn
1 : 0 Buxton
03 Oct
Buxton
0 : 2 South Shields
26 Sept
South Shields
4 : 0 Buxton
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Chorley
2 : 3 Buxton
10 Oct
King’s Lynn
1 : 0 Buxton
26 Sept
South Shields
4 : 0 Buxton
05 Sept
Morecambe
4 : 0 Buxton
28 Aug
Oxford City
2 : 3 Buxton
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24:7 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22:8 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18:11 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:18 | 23 |
| 5 | King’s Lynn | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22:16 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23:19 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23:23 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16:16 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:23 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20:21 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:20 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14:13 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12:13 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19:18 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 15:16 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 16:21 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15:24 | 15 |
| 21 | Telford | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13:20 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 17:24 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12:26 | 7 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
