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Stadium Background

Chorley vs Chester

England England

National League North Victory Park, Chorley
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Campbell M.
60' Event
Taylor E.
87' Event
Waters B.

AI Match Summary

The National League North game between Chorley and Chester finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chester.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Chorley
15%
Draws
69%
Chester
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chester

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chester come out ahead of Chorley on wins alone.
  • 69% — that's where the model lands on Chester taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Chorley Clean Sheet 17%
Chester Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chorley Chester
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 7 18
Draws 6 4
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 National League North
Chorley vs Chester
1:2
Jan 17, 2026 National League North
Chester vs Chorley
3:3
Aug 16, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Chester
3:0
Mar 8, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Chester
3:2
Nov 23, 2024 National League North
Chester vs Chorley
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chorley Compare

Top Goalscorer Taylor E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Chester Compare

Top Goalscorer Campbell M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Waters B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chorley 10 / 100
Chester 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chorley Chester

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chester Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Chorley's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Chester conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Chorley remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chorley VS Chester
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Chorley

(Home)
18 Aug
Marine
0 : 2
Chorley
15 Aug
South Shields
2 : 1
Chorley
08 Aug
Chorley
1 : 2
Chester
28 Jul
Trafford
2 : 1
Chorley
25 Jul
Chorley
0 : 3
Accrington
Page 1 of 6

Chester

(Away)
18 Aug
Darlington FC
0 : 1
Chester
15 Aug
Chester
2 : 0
King’s Lynn
08 Aug
Chorley
1 : 2
Chester
01 Aug
Chester
0 : 0
Crewe
28 Jul
Nantwich
0 : 3
Chester
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chester 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
2 South Shields 3 3 0 0 4:1 9
3 Hebburn Town 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
4 Macclesfield 3 2 1 0 3:1 7
5 Oxford City 3 2 1 0 3:1 7
6 Scarborough Athletic 3 2 0 1 7:4 6
7 Hereford 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
8 Worksop 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
9 Harborough 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
10 Merthyr Town 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
11 Spalding United 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
12 Buxton 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
13 King’s Lynn 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
14 Brackley 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
15 Spennymoor 3 1 1 1 3:5 4
16 Chorley 3 1 0 2 4:4 3
17 Darlington FC 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
18 Bedford 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
19 Southport 3 0 2 1 4:6 2
20 Telford 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
21 Morecambe 3 0 1 2 1:3 1
22 Hednesford 3 0 1 2 5:8 1
23 Marine 3 0 0 3 0:4 0
24 Radcliffe 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)