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Christchurch vs Auckland United

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2025
Sat, Jul 26, 2025
2 - 4
03:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Rogerson J. J.
53' Event
Tollervey J.
82' Event
Conroy M. J.

AI Match Summary

Auckland United in this Chatham Cup 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Auckland United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Christchurch
33%
Draws
27%
Auckland United
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Christchurch

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Auckland United haven't matched Christchurch's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Christchurch's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Cup games in Chatham Cup 2025 usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Christchurch Clean Sheet 12%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Christchurch Auckland United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 National League
Auckland United vs Christchurch
0:2
Jul 26, 2025 Chatham Cup
Christchurch vs Auckland United
2:4
Oct 7, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Christchurch
2:2
Oct 15, 2022 National League
Auckland United vs Christchurch
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Christchurch Compare

Top Goalscorer Rogerson J. J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tollervey J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Auckland United Compare

Top Goalscorer Tade E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Conroy M. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Christchurch 38 / 100
Auckland United 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Christchurch Auckland United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Christchurch scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Auckland United let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Christchurch remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Christchurch VS Auckland United
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC2
Western Springs1
Manukau United1
Eastern Suburbs3
Western Suburbs4
Palmerston North United FC1
Napier City2
Wellington Olympic3
Wanaka FC0
Christchurch3
Auckland United7
Melville1
Dunedin City Royals0
Nelson Suburbs FC1
Birkenhead7
Waiheke United0
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC0
Eastern Suburbs2
Western Suburbs2
Wellington Olympic3
Christchurch2
Auckland United4
Nelson Suburbs FC2
Birkenhead1
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs1
Wellington Olympic2
Auckland United3
Nelson Suburbs FC0
Final
Wellington Olympic4
Auckland United2