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Cienciano vs AD Tarma

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Rojas J.
46'
Sub
Rojas J. In: Canela Torres J. J.
Out: Rojas J.
46'
Sub
Cavero S. In: Bandiera N.
Out: Cavero S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with AD Tarma advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Cienciano
28%
Draws
22%
AD Tarma
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Cienciano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Cienciano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Cienciano's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Cienciano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AD Tarma, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Cienciano Clean Sheet 68%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cienciano AD Tarma
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 16 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Cienciano vs AD Tarma
2:3
Apr 3, 2026 Liga 1
Cienciano vs AD Tarma
3:2
Jul 19, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Cienciano
1:0
Mar 5, 2025 Copa Sudamericana
AD Tarma vs Cienciano
1:2
Feb 9, 2025 Liga 1
Cienciano vs AD Tarma
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cienciano Compare

Top Goalscorer Hohberg A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garces C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Rojas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bauman J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cienciano 59 / 100
AD Tarma 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cienciano AD Tarma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CIE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cienciano's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

AD Tarma let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Recent resilience: Cienciano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cienciano VS AD Tarma
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cienciano

(Home)
18 Jul
Cienciano
1 : 3
FBC Melgar
10 Jul
Cienciano
2 : 3
AD Tarma
28 Jun
Cusco
1 : 2
Cienciano
21 Jun
Cienciano
2 : 1
Deportivo Garcilaso
13 Jun
Binacional
0 : 2
Cienciano
Page 1 of 6

AD Tarma

(Away)
18 Jul
AD Tarma
1 : 2
Universitario de Deportes
10 Jul
Cienciano
2 : 3
AD Tarma
26 Jun
Sport Huancayo
1 : 0
AD Tarma
19 Jun
AD Tarma
3 : 1
Alianza Huanuco
12 Jun
Union Minas
0 : 0
AD Tarma
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Alianza Atl.3
Pirata2
Cajamarca4
ADA Jaen1
Atletico Grau2
Carlos Mannucci1
Sport Boys1
Comerciantes FC0
Sporting Cristal2
Tacna Heroica1
Sport Huancayo3
Los Chankas1
Cienciano2
AD Tarma3
Moquegua1
Deportivo Garcilaso0
Quarter-finals
Alianza Atl.-
Cajamarca-
Atletico Grau-
Sport Boys-
Sporting Cristal-
Sport Huancayo-
AD Tarma-
Moquegua-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-