Sport Picks

Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Deportivo Garcilaso

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cienciano play Deportivo Garcilaso in the Copa de la Liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cienciano averaged 1.74 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Deportivo Garcilaso averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Cienciano won 2, Deportivo Garcilaso won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 21, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Cienciano and 1.63 for Deportivo Garcilaso. This points to a Cienciano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Cienciano

16%

Draws

34%

Deportivo Garcilaso

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Cienciano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Cienciano picked up more points recently compared to Deportivo Garcilaso.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%

Cienciano Clean Sheet 14%

Deportivo Garcilaso Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cienciano	Deportivo Garcilaso
Matches Played	31	28
Wins	18	10
Draws	6	7
Losses	7	11
Goals Scored	1.74	1.14
Goals Conceded	1.29	1.29
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Copa de la Liga

Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Possession: 45% - 59% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

Feb 28, 2026 Liga 1

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cienciano

Possession: 57% - 40% Cards: 3 - 2

2:3

Aug 2, 2025 Liga 1

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cienciano

Possession: 51% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Feb 23, 2025 Liga 1

Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 2 - 0

2:3

Sep 21, 2024 Liga 1

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cienciano

Possession: 50% - 57% Cards: 4 - 0

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cienciano Compare

Top Goalscorer Becerra K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Deportivo Garcilaso Compare

Top Goalscorer Arancibia F.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cienciano 48 / 100

Deportivo Garcilaso 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cienciano Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cienciano or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19%

2.38

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cienciano attacking → ← attacking Deportivo Garcilaso

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cienciano scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Deportivo Garcilaso let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Cienciano went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Deportivo Garcilaso lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 37

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Atl.	3	3	0	0	5:1	9
2	Carlos Mannucci	3	2	0	1	6:4	6
3	A. Lima	3	0	1	2	2:5	1
4	Cesar Vallejo	3	0	1	2	2:5	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ADA Jaen	2	1	1	0	2:0	4
2	Juan Pablo II	2	0	2	0	0:0	2
3	Comerciantes Unidos	2	0	1	1	0:2	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cajamarca	2	1	1	0	5:3	4
2	Llacuabamba	2	0	2	0	3:3	2
3	FC Cajamarca	2	0	1	1	2:4	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Grau	2	1	1	0	4:3	4
2	Pirata	2	1	0	1	4:3	3
3	Universitario de Deportes	2	0	1	1	1:3	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sport Huancayo	3	2	1	0	4:2	7
2	AD Tarma	3	1	1	1	3:2	4
3	Alianza Huanuco	3	1	1	1	5:5	4
4	Union Minas	3	0	1	2	2:5	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cienciano	3	3	0	0	6:2	9
2	Deportivo Garcilaso	3	1	1	1	5:3	4
3	Binacional	3	1	0	2	5:9	3
4	Cusco	3	0	1	2	4:6	1

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Los Chankas	2	2	0	4:0	6
2	Santos FC	2	1	1	2:4	3
3	Ayacucho	2	0	2	1:3	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Moquegua	2	1	1	0	3:2	4
2	Tacna Heroica	2	1	0	1	5:5	3
3	FBC Melgar	2	0	1	1	2:3	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sport Boys	2	1	1	0	5:2	4
2	AD Cantolao	2	1	0	1	4:6	3
3	U. San Martin	2	0	1	1	5:6	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sporting Cristal	3	2	1	0	5:2	7
2	Comerciantes FC	3	1	2	0	2:1	5
3	Union Comercio	3	1	0	2	3:4	3
4	Estudiantil CNI	3	0	1	2	2:5	1