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Stadium Background

Citta di Fasano vs Gravina

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Serie D
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Lagzir S.
44' Event
Penza E.
90' Event
Stauciuc B.

AI Match Summary

The Coppa Italia Serie D game between Citta di Fasano and Gravina finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Citta di Fasano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Citta di Fasano
11%
Draws
80%
Gravina
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Gravina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Citta di Fasano have managed 1.5 goals a game lately — Gravina are scoring more at 2.
  • Gravina are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Citta di Fasano here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Citta di Fasano Clean Sheet 16%
Gravina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Citta di Fasano Gravina
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 16 16
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.5 2
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Citta di Fasano vs Gravina
4:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Citta di Fasano vs Gravina
3:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Citta di Fasano
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Citta di Fasano
1:2
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Citta di Fasano vs Gravina
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Citta di Fasano Compare

Top Goalscorer Lagzir S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Penza E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Gravina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Citta di Fasano 11 / 100
Gravina 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Citta di Fasano Gravina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Citta di Fasano found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Gravina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Solid form: Citta di Fasano remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Citta di Fasano VS Gravina
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Asti Calcio2
Chisola0
Ligorna1
NovaRomentin2
Vado3
Sestri Levante0
Tau1
Pistoiese3
Piacenza2
SCD Progresso1
Pavia2
Sant'Angelo0
Prato2
Montevarchi1
Correggese2
Imolese1
Sondrio1
Breno0
Folgore Caratese2
Club Milano3
AC Milan U232
Varesina3
Brusaporto0
Ciserano-Bergamo1
Chievo0
Rovato Vertovese1
Este3
Vigasio2
Cjarlins Muzane1
Brian Lignano2
Luparense FC0
Mestre1
Fossombrone0
Ancona1
Foligno0
Atletico Ascoli2
Orvietana2
Siena0
Follonica Gavorrano0
Valmontone1
Notaresco Calcio2
Termoli0
Albalonga2
Aquila Calcio1
Grosseto0
Unipomezia1
Trastevere Calcio2
Budoni Calcio0
Martina Calcio3
Sarnese1
Ferrandina2
Francavilla3
A.C. Savoia2
Paganese1
Citta di Fasano3
Gravina0
Nocerina4
Gelbison2
Sambiase0
Reggina1
Castrumfavara3
Igea Virtus1
Enna0
Sancataldese2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio3
NovaRomentin2
Vado0
Pistoiese3
Piacenza2
Pavia1
Prato1
Correggese4
Sondrio0
Club Milano3
Varesina4
Ciserano-Bergamo1
Rovato Vertovese1
Este3
Brian Lignano0
Mestre1
Ancona1
Atletico Ascoli0
Orvietana0
Valmontone1
Notaresco Calcio2
Albalonga1
Unipomezia3
Trastevere Calcio1
Martina Calcio1
Francavilla2
A.C. Savoia3
Citta di Fasano4
Nocerina3
Reggina2
Castrumfavara3
Sancataldese2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio1
Pistoiese3
Piacenza0
Correggese1
Club Milano1
Varesina0
Este1
Mestre2
Ancona2
Valmontone1
Notaresco Calcio0
Unipomezia1
Francavilla3
Citta di Fasano2
Nocerina2
Castrumfavara0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese2
Correggese0
Club Milano1
Mestre0
Ancona2
Unipomezia1
Francavilla1
Nocerina0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese3
Club Milano1
Ancona2
Francavilla1
Final
Pistoiese3
Ancona0