Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano

0 - 3

Virtus Francavilla

Our Tip

Match Events

20'

Carretta M.

(Penalty)

83'

Paladini B.

90'

Ahmetaj M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H game between Citta di Fasano and Virtus Francavilla finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Virtus Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Citta di Fasano

Draws

Virtus Francavilla

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Citta di Fasano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Citta di Fasano carry the better recent record into this one.
Citta di Fasano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%

Citta di Fasano Clean Sheet 68%

Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Citta di Fasano	Virtus Francavilla
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	15	11
Draws	6	10
Losses	10	9
Goals Scored	1.5	1.25
Goals Conceded	1	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano vs Virtus Francavilla

Possession: 52% - 57% Cards: 2 - 3

0:3

Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group H

Virtus Francavilla vs Citta di Fasano

Possession: 41% - 52% Cards: 0 - 3

0:1

Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H

Virtus Francavilla vs Citta di Fasano

Possession: 49% - 43% Cards: 1 - 4

1:1

Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano vs Virtus Francavilla

Possession: 43% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

0:1

Aug 18, 2022 Club Friendly

Citta di Fasano vs Virtus Francavilla

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 1 - 1

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Citta di Fasano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Virtus Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Paladini B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ahmetaj M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Citta di Fasano 95 / 100

Virtus Francavilla 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Citta di Fasano Virtus Francavilla

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CIT Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Citta di Fasano's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Virtus Francavilla's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Virtus Francavilla lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Citta di Fasano VS Virtus Francavilla

1.5 Goals Scored 1.25

1 Goals Conceded 1.63

88% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barletta	34	20	10	4	54:20	70
2	Martina Calcio	34	18	8	8	47:30	62
3	Citta di Fasano	34	18	8	8	51:35	62
4	Paganese	34	17	7	10	36:32	58
5	A.C.D. Nardo	34	14	13	7	40:27	55
6	Gravina	34	16	7	11	50:40	55
7	Afragolese	34	13	10	11	45:46	49
8	Fidelis Andria	34	13	9	12	35:28	48
9	Virtus Francavilla	34	12	12	10	45:40	48
10	Real Normanna	34	10	13	11	27:26	43
11	Francavilla	34	11	10	13	39:38	43
12	Manfredonia	34	11	10	13	34:39	43
13	Sarnese	34	9	14	11	51:49	41
14	SS Nola 1925	34	11	8	15	42:50	41
15	Heraclea	34	10	8	16	31:39	38
16	Pompei	34	9	7	18	26:38	34
17	Ferrandina	34	7	9	18	21:43	30
18	Acerrana	34	3	5	26	20:74	14