Sport Picks
Ciudad de Lucena vs Castilleja CF
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 
Match Events
5'
5'
Cantarino Abelleira D.
12'
12'
Fuentes H.
59'
59'
Ortiz M.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 game between Ciudad de Lucena and Castilleja CF finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ciudad de Lucena.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ciudad de Lucena
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Castilleja CF haven't matched Ciudad de Lucena's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Ciudad de Lucena's way, sitting at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Ciudad de Lucena have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Ciudad de Lucena Clean Sheet 68%
Castilleja CF Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja CF |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 4 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.9 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.67 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs Castilleja CF
5:0
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs Ciudad de Lucena
0:2
Feb 7, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs Castilleja CF
3:1
Nov 8, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs Ciudad de Lucena
0:3
Feb 4, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs Ciudad de Lucena
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ciudad de Lucena Compare
Top Goalscorer Cantarino Abelleira D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Fuentes H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Castilleja CF Compare
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ciudad de Lucena 68 / 100
Castilleja CF 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ciudad de Lucena Castilleja CF
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ciudad de Lucena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ciudad de Lucena found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).
Castilleja CF let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Ciudad de Lucena stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ciudad de Lucena VS Castilleja CF
2.25 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ciudad de Lucena
(Home) 20 Sept
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 2 Tenerife B
13 Sept
Mijas Las Lagunas
1 : 1 Ciudad de Lucena
06 Sept
Linares
1 : 1 Ciudad de Lucena
30 Aug
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0 Mancha
10 May
Ciudad de Lucena
2 : 1 Dos Hermanas
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20 Sept
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 2 Tenerife B
30 Aug
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0 Mancha
10 May
Ciudad de Lucena
2 : 1 Dos Hermanas
26 Apr
Ciudad de Lucena
5 : 0 Tomares UD
18 Apr
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0 Bollullos
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Castilleja CF
(Away) 06 May
Castilleja CF
0 : 2 Coria C.F.
03 May
AD Ceuta B
2 : 2 Castilleja CF
26 Apr
Castilleja CF
0 : 1 Cordoba B
19 Apr
Chiclana
1 : 0 Castilleja CF
12 Apr
Castilleja CF
3 : 1 Conil
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03 May
AD Ceuta B
2 : 2 Castilleja CF
19 Apr
Chiclana
1 : 0 Castilleja CF
02 Apr
Atletico Central
2 : 1 Castilleja CF
25 Mar
Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)
0 : 0 Castilleja CF
22 Mar
Dos Hermanas
5 : 1 Castilleja CF
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciudad de Lucena | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 69:25 | 73 |
| 2 | Dos Hermanas | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 69:39 | 60 |
| 3 | Atletico Central | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 36:29 | 55 |
| 4 | Bollullos | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 43:35 | 53 |
| 5 | AD Ceuta B | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 38:38 | 52 |
| 6 | Linense | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 45:32 | 52 |
| 7 | Cadiz B | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 50:38 | 52 |
| 8 | Conil | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 43:44 | 52 |
| 9 | Cordoba B | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 44:44 | 44 |
| 10 | CD Utrera | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40:47 | 44 |
| 11 | Pozoblanco | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 39:44 | 43 |
| 12 | Chiclana | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 39:45 | 43 |
| 13 | San Roque de Lepe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 39:39 | 43 |
| 14 | Atl. Onubense (Huelva B) | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36:43 | 40 |
| 15 | Tomares UD | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 34:46 | 39 |
| 16 | Sevilla C | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 34:41 | 38 |
| 17 | Castilleja CF | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 28:62 | 27 |
| 18 | Coria C.F. | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 24:59 | 21 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
