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Ciudad de Madrid vs Union Adarve Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Keita A.
88' Event
Gonzalo A.
89' Event
Ogando J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 game between Ciudad de Madrid and Union Adarve finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ciudad de Madrid.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Ciudad de Madrid
30%
Draws
70%
Union Adarve
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Union Adarve

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Union Adarve carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Union Adarve are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Ciudad de Madrid Clean Sheet 10%
Union Adarve Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ciudad de Madrid Union Adarve
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 14
Draws 5 8
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 0.83 1.48
Goals Conceded 2.27 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 0.78 3.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Union Adarve vs Ciudad de Madrid
5:0
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Ciudad de Madrid vs Union Adarve
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ciudad de Madrid Compare

Top Goalscorer Keita A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gonzalo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.6
Avg xA / game 0.39

Union Adarve Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogando J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.9
Avg xA / game 1.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ciudad de Madrid 10 / 100
Union Adarve 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ciudad de Madrid Union Adarve

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union Adarve Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.

Union Adarve's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Ciudad de Madrid scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Away concern: Union Adarve has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ciudad de Madrid VS Union Adarve
0.57 Goals Scored 2.25
4.14 Goals Conceded 1
86% Over 1.5 88%
86% Over 2.5 75%
86% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ciudad de Madrid

(Home)
10 May
Union Adarve
5 : 0
Ciudad de Madrid
03 May
Ciudad de Madrid
0 : 4
Villaverde San Andres
25 Apr
Atl. Madrid C
5 : 1
Ciudad de Madrid
19 Apr
Ciudad de Madrid
0 : 1
Siello
12 Apr
Pozuelo de Alarcon
4 : 1
Ciudad de Madrid
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Union Adarve

(Away)
27 Sept
Union Adarve
2 : 2
CF Fuenlabrada
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Union Adarve
13 Sept
Union Adarve
1 : 1
Colonia Moscardo
06 Sept
San Sebastian Reyes B
0 : 2
Union Adarve
30 Aug
Marchamalo
2 : 0
Union Adarve
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid C 34 18 10 6 83:46 64
2 Trival Valderas 34 18 6 10 50:36 60
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 9 8 57:46 60
4 CD Las Rozas 34 16 8 10 58:42 56
5 Leganes B 34 15 9 10 63:33 54
6 Union Adarve 34 15 8 11 48:42 53
7 CD Mostoles 34 14 9 11 51:45 51
8 San Sebastian Reyes B 34 12 13 9 45:35 49
9 Pozuelo de Alarcon 34 12 12 10 40:33 48
10 Galapagar 34 11 13 10 42:47 46
11 Mexico 34 12 9 13 45:49 45
12 Siello 34 13 5 16 39:45 44
13 Alcorcon B 34 11 11 12 37:34 44
14 Villaverde San Andres 34 10 13 11 32:44 43
15 Carabanchel 34 9 11 14 30:36 38
16 Tres Cantos 34 10 3 21 40:65 33
17 Parla 34 7 6 21 29:66 27
18 Ciudad de Madrid 34 5 7 22 31:76 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 (Play Offs)