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Ciudad de Murcia vs Montecasillas Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Bastida Tirado S.

AI Match Summary

Montecasillas in this Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montecasillas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Ciudad de Murcia
20%
Draws
30%
Montecasillas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ciudad de Murcia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Ciudad de Murcia haven't matched Montecasillas's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ciudad de Murcia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Ciudad de Murcia Clean Sheet 20%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ciudad de Murcia Montecasillas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 7
Draws 8 2
Losses 16 21
Goals Scored 0.83 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Ciudad de Murcia vs Montecasillas
0:1
Jan 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Ciudad de Murcia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ciudad de Murcia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Montecasillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Bastida Tirado S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ciudad de Murcia 85 / 100
Montecasillas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ciudad de Murcia Montecasillas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ciudad de Murcia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Montecasillas conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Ciudad de Murcia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Montecasillas has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ciudad de Murcia VS Montecasillas
0.5 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 3.13
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ciudad de Murcia

(Home)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
05 May
CA Pulpileno
1 : 0
Ciudad de Murcia
01 May
Ciudad de Murcia
3 : 1
Racing Murcia
27 Apr
Deportiva Minera
1 : 1
Ciudad de Murcia
21 Apr
Ciudad de Murcia
1 : 1
Balsicas Atletico
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Montecasillas

(Away)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)