Sport Picks
Club Atletico Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Morelos, Morelia 
Match Events
23'
23'
del Campo R.
Assist: Nambo M.
27'
27'
Rodriguez M.
Assist: del Campo R.
32'
32'
Sub
Alvarez K. In: Martinez D.
Out: Alvarez K.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Club Atletico Morelia and Alebrijes de Oaxaca finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Club Atletico Morelia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
20%
34%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club Atletico Morelia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Club Atletico Morelia carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Club Atletico Morelia's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Club Atletico Morelia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 20%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Atletico Morelia | Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4:1
Jan 17, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Club Atletico Morelia
0:3
Aug 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:1
Feb 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Aug 25, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez M.
2 Goals Assists Leader del Campo R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Club Atletico Morelia 85 / 100
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Club Atletico Morelia Alebrijes de Oaxaca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Club Atletico Morelia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Club Atletico Morelia's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Club Atletico Morelia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Club Atletico Morelia VS Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Club Atletico Morelia
(Home) 10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
21 Aug
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 3 Correcaminos
09 Aug
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Cancun
Page 1 of 3
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Away) 09 Oct
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 : 1 Correcaminos
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
23 Aug
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
06 Aug
Tlaxcala
0 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28:17 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27:22 | 20 |
| 5 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
