Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A

Celle Varazze

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Club Milano play Celle Varazze in the Serie D - Group A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Club Milano averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Celle Varazze averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Club Milano won 2, Celle Varazze won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 11, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Club Milano and 1.38 for Celle Varazze. This points to a Club Milano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

Club Milano

19%

Draws

35%

Celle Varazze

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Club Milano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Club Milano picked up more points recently compared to Celle Varazze.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Club Milano Clean Sheet 17%

Celle Varazze Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Club Milano	Celle Varazze
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	13	11
Draws	4	8
Losses	15	11
Goals Scored	1.19	1.23
Goals Conceded	1.34	1.3
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group A

Club Milano vs Celle Varazze

Possession: 58% - 50% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Celle Varazze vs Club Milano

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 3 - 1

0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Club Milano Compare

Top Goalscorer Dell'Acqua D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Henry T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.73

Avg xA / game 1.13

Celle Varazze Compare

Top Goalscorer Donaggio L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Club Milano 45 / 100

Celle Varazze 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Club Milano Celle Varazze

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Club Milano or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21%

2.63

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Club Milano attacking → ← attacking Celle Varazze

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Club Milano scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

Celle Varazze let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Club Milano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Celle Varazze lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 41

2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vado	34	24	6	4	69:24	78
2	Ligorna	34	21	9	4	64:26	72
3	AS Biellese	34	16	9	9	48:29	57
4	Varese FC	34	16	8	10	43:43	56
5	Chisola	34	16	7	11	44:36	55
6	Sestri Levante	34	15	9	10	54:34	54
7	Sanremese	34	13	10	11	37:30	49
8	Valenzana	34	12	9	13	33:48	45
9	Celle Varazze	34	12	8	14	41:47	44
10	Saluzzo	34	11	10	13	48:44	43
11	Club Milano	34	12	6	16	43:49	42
12	Imperia Calcio	34	10	11	13	36:44	41
13	Cairese	34	9	13	12	29:34	40
14	Derthona FbC	34	11	7	16	36:46	40
15	Gozzano	34	9	12	13	37:42	39
16	Asti Calcio	34	8	11	15	32:42	35
17	Lavagnese	34	5	12	17	32:52	27
18	NovaRomentin	34	6	3	25	26:82	16