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Club Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

South America South America

Copa Libertadores Gran Parque Central
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Sandoval L.
37'
Boggio L.
41'
Pedrozo D.

AI Match Summary

Club Nacional in this Copa Libertadores matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Nacional.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Club Nacional
28%
Draws
22%
Deportes Tolima
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Club Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Club Nacional lately — more wins on the board than Deportes Tolima.
  • Club Nacional are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 68%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Club Nacional Deportes Tolima
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional
3:0
Apr 14, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Club Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Club Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Coates S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Deportes Tolima Compare

Top Goalscorer Rovira B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Club Nacional 59 / 100
Deportes Tolima 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Club Nacional Deportes Tolima

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Club Nacional scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Solid form: Club Nacional remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Deportes Tolima lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Club Nacional VS Deportes Tolima
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Flamengo RJ651014:216
2Estudiantes L.P.62316:59
3Ind. Medellin62136:117
4Cusco60154:121
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Coquimbo63128:610
2Deportes Tolima62227:68
3Club Nacional62227:98
4Universitario de Deportes61325:66
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ind. Rivadavia651015:616
2Fluminense62227:78
3Bolivar61236:85
4Deportivo La Guaira60336:133
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1U. Catolica64118:413
2Cruzeiro63218:311
3Boca Juniors62136:57
4Barcelona SC61052:123
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Corinthians63218:411
2Platense63128:710
3Santa Fe62226:78
4Penarol60334:83
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cerro Porteno64116:213
2Palmeiras632110:511
3Sporting Cristal62046:96
4Junior61145:114
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1LDU Quito64028:512
2Mirassol64027:412
3Lanus63033:79
4Always Ready61057:93
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle641111:613
2Rosario Central64119:113
3Universidad Central63037:119
4Libertad Asuncion60064:130