Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Coastal Spirit vs Napier City Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Annear J.
31' Event
Steinwascher A.
65' Event
Emerson C.

AI Match Summary

Napier City in this National League 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Napier City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Coastal Spirit
20%
Draws
51%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Napier City lately — more wins on the board than Coastal Spirit.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Napier City taking it.
  • Regular National League 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Coastal Spirit Clean Sheet 10%
Napier City Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coastal Spirit Napier City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.31 1.93
Goals Conceded 2.28 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 2.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 10, 2024 National League
Coastal Spirit vs Napier City
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coastal Spirit Compare

Top Goalscorer Steinwascher A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49

Napier City Compare

Top Goalscorer Annear J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Emerson C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.95
Avg xA / game 1.19

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coastal Spirit 10 / 100
Napier City 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coastal Spirit Napier City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Coastal Spirit's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Coastal Spirit remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Coastal Spirit VS Napier City
0.63 Goals Scored 2.17
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Coastal Spirit

(Home)
05 Mar
Coastal Spirit
0 : 0
Christchurch
26 Feb
Coastal Spirit
1 : 5
Nomads United
06 Dec
Auckland City
3 : 0
Coastal Spirit
23 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 0
Western Springs
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
Page 1 of 6

Napier City

(Away)
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Birkenhead 9 6 2 1 23:16 20
2 Auckland City 9 6 1 2 20:10 19
3 Western Springs 9 6 0 3 25:16 18
4 Napier City 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
5 Wellington Phoenix 2 9 4 1 4 16:19 13
6 Wellington Olympic 9 3 2 4 17:15 11
7 Coastal Spirit 9 3 2 4 18:20 11
8 Cashmere Technical 9 2 3 4 16:18 9
9 Eastern Suburbs 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Western Suburbs 9 1 1 7 9:28 4
Promotion - National League 2024 (Grand Final)