Sport Picks
Coastal Union vs Mtibwa Sugar
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Mkwakwani Stadium, Tanga 
Match Events
24'
24'
Ramadhani C.
Own Goal
46'
46'
Sub
Mwamita M. In: Makambo A.
Out: Mwamita M.
75'
75'
Sub
Mkopi S. In: Mhesa I.
Out: Mkopi S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Coastal Union
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Mtibwa Sugar haven't matched Coastal Union's recent run of results.
- Model gives Coastal Union a 85% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Coastal Union Clean Sheet 20%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Coastal Union | Mtibwa Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 6 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.28 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.73 | 1.08 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 6, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Coastal Union vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Coastal Union
0:0
Feb 24, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Coastal Union vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:0
Aug 20, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Coastal Union
1:1
Apr 23, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Coastal Union vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Coastal Union Compare
Top Goalscorer Mkandala C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86
Mtibwa Sugar Compare
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.6
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Coastal Union 85 / 100
Mtibwa Sugar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Coastal Union Mtibwa Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Coastal Union Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mtibwa Sugar has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Difficult form: Mtibwa Sugar registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.
Coastal Union's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.
Coastal Union has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Coastal Union VS Mtibwa Sugar
1.13 Goals Scored 0.67
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.33
88% Over 1.5 83%
50% Over 2.5 83%
25% Over 3.5 33%
Recent Form & Match History
Coastal Union
(Home) 12 Sept
Coastal Union
2 : 1 JKT Tanzania
06 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 2 Coastal Union
27 Aug
Simba
1 : 0 Coastal Union
24 Aug
Coastal Union
1 : 1 TRA United
20 Aug
Young Africans
4 : 1 Coastal Union
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Coastal Union
2 : 1 JKT Tanzania
24 Aug
Coastal Union
1 : 1 TRA United
15 Aug
Coastal Union
0 : 1 Mashujaa
30 Jun
Coastal Union
2 : 1 Pamba
27 Jun
Coastal Union
0 : 2 Azam
Page 1 of 3
Mtibwa Sugar
(Away) 30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 6
30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
20 May
TRA United
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71:9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54:11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46:12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47:35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33:28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25:36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25:32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15:27 | 33 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25:44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23:41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24:41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25:48 | 27 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16:53 | 9 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)
