Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes

USA USA

US Open Cup Dick's Sporting Goods Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Colorado Rapids play San Jose Earthquakes in the US Open Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Colorado Rapids averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. San Jose Earthquakes averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Colorado Rapids won 3, San Jose Earthquakes won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 21, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Colorado Rapids and 1.94 for San Jose Earthquakes. This points to a San Jose Earthquakes double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Colorado Rapids
15%
Draws
49%
San Jose Earthquakes
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Jose Earthquakes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Colorado Rapids picked up more points recently compared to San Jose Earthquakes.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Colorado Rapids Clean Sheet 10%
San Jose Earthquakes Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Colorado Rapids San Jose Earthquakes
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 17
Draws 4 2
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.63 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 US Open Cup
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
2:0
May 11, 2025 MLS
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
0:2
Mar 16, 2025 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
1:2
May 12, 2024 MLS
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
2:3
Apr 14, 2024 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Colorado Rapids Compare

Top Goalscorer Yapi D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

San Jose Earthquakes Compare

Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Colorado Rapids 34 / 100
San Jose Earthquakes 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Colorado Rapids San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: San Jose Earthquakes or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Colorado Rapids attacking → ← attacking San Jose Earthquakes

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Colorado Rapids scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

San Jose Earthquakes let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Colorado Rapids went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

San Jose Earthquakes lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 53
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75