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Comercial MS vs Bataguassu

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Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025
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AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025 game between Comercial MS and Bataguassu finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bataguassu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Comercial MS
28%
Draws
22%
Bataguassu
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bataguassu come out ahead of Comercial MS on wins alone.
  • Model gives Comercial MS a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 83.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 20%
Bataguassu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial MS Bataguassu
Matches Played 27 25
Wins 7 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.83 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.83 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Bataguassu
2:4
Aug 31, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Bataguassu vs Comercial MS
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial MS 49 / 100
Bataguassu 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial MS Bataguassu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ESP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Comercial MS scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Bataguassu conceded in 76% of 25 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Comercial MS remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Comercial MS VS Bataguassu
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.83 Goals Conceded 2.13
67% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial MS

(Home)
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
25 Jun
Comercial MS
2 : 1
7 de Setembro
20 Jun
Aquidauanense
1 : 0
Comercial MS
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Bataguassu

(Away)
02 Apr
Operario MS
2 : 1
Bataguassu
21 Mar
Bataguassu
1 : 3
Operario MS
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
11 Mar
Ivinhema
4 : 4
Bataguassu
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bataguassu1072127:923
2Clube de Regatas Aquidauana1072123:723
3Maracaju1044212:1316
4Comercial MS1024412:1710
5Esporte Clube Taveiropolis1020811:256
6Sao Gabriel MS101276:205
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Main)