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Comercial MS vs Bataguassu

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025
Comercial MS Logo

Comercial MS

2 - 4
FT
Bataguassu Logo

Bataguassu

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025 game between Comercial MS and Bataguassu finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bataguassu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Comercial MS
20%
Draws
23%
Bataguassu
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bataguassu come out ahead of Comercial MS on wins alone.
  • Model gives Comercial MS a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 19%
Bataguassu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial MS Bataguassu
Matches Played 28 25
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.29 2.16
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.85 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Bataguassu
2:4
Aug 31, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Bataguassu vs Comercial MS
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial MS 67 / 100
Bataguassu 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial MS Bataguassu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial MS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Comercial MS scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Bataguassu conceded in 76% of 25 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Comercial MS remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Comercial MS VS Bataguassu
1.57 Goals Scored 1.75
0.86 Goals Conceded 2.13
71% Over 1.5 100%
43% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial MS

(Home)
02 Aug
Comercial MS
2 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
25 Jul
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Misto
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 6

Bataguassu

(Away)
02 Apr
Operario MS
2 : 1
Bataguassu
21 Mar
Bataguassu
1 : 3
Operario MS
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
11 Mar
Ivinhema
4 : 4
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bataguassu 10 7 2 1 27:9 23
2 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 10 7 2 1 23:7 23
3 Maracaju 10 4 4 2 12:13 16
4 Comercial MS 10 2 4 4 12:17 10
5 Esporte Clube Taveiropolis 10 2 0 8 11:25 6
6 Sao Gabriel MS 10 1 2 7 6:20 5
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