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Comercial MS vs Sao Gabriel MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025
Comercial MS Logo

Comercial MS

2 - 1
FT
Sao Gabriel MS Logo

Sao Gabriel MS

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025 game between Comercial MS and Sao Gabriel MS finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Comercial MS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Comercial MS
30%
Draws
12%
Sao Gabriel MS
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Comercial MS come out ahead of Sao Gabriel MS on wins alone.
  • Comercial MS are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Comercial MS here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 16%
Sao Gabriel MS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial MS Sao Gabriel MS
Matches Played 28 17
Wins 8 2
Draws 7 4
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.29 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Sao Gabriel MS vs Comercial MS
1:3
Nov 1, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Sao Gabriel MS vs Comercial MS
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Sao Gabriel MS
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial MS 84 / 100
Sao Gabriel MS 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial MS Sao Gabriel MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial MS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Gabriel MS has conceded goals in 88% of their last 17 outings.

Attacking prowess: Comercial MS scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Comercial MS has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Comercial MS VS Sao Gabriel MS
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial MS

(Home)
02 Aug
Comercial MS
2 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
25 Jul
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Misto
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 6

Sao Gabriel MS

(Away)
02 Aug
7 de Setembro
4 : 0
Sao Gabriel MS
27 Jul
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
2 : 2
Sao Gabriel MS
20 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 2
Aquidauanense
11 Jul
Misto
0 : 0
Sao Gabriel MS
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bataguassu 10 7 2 1 27:9 23
2 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 10 7 2 1 23:7 23
3 Maracaju 10 4 4 2 12:13 16
4 Comercial MS 10 2 4 4 12:17 10
5 Esporte Clube Taveiropolis 10 2 0 8 11:25 6
6 Sao Gabriel MS 10 1 2 7 6:20 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Main)