Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Comercial vs EC Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista Estadio Palma Travassos, Ribeirao Preto
Comercial Logo

Comercial

2 - 0
FT
EC Sao Bernardo Logo

EC Sao Bernardo

Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Filipinho
89' Event
Filipinho
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Comercial
15%
Draws
51%
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EC Sao Bernardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Comercial have won more games recently than EC Sao Bernardo.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Comercial have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Comercial, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Comercial Clean Sheet 16%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial EC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 13 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.09 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Copa Paulista
EC Sao Bernardo vs Comercial
2:1
Aug 31, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs EC Sao Bernardo
2:0
Mar 1, 2025 Paulista A3
Comercial vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:0
Mar 19, 2022 Paulista A3
Comercial vs EC Sao Bernardo
4:2
Nov 7, 2020 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Comercial
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Comercial Compare

Top Goalscorer Filipinho
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

EC Sao Bernardo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial 31 / 100
EC Sao Bernardo 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial EC Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Comercial found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: EC Sao Bernardo conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

EC Sao Bernardo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Comercial VS EC Sao Bernardo
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial

(Home)
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
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EC Sao Bernardo

(Away)
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Noroeste -
TBD -
Primavera EC 12
Sao Caetano 0
Juventus-SP -
TBD -
Bandeirante 3
Uniao Sao Joao 4
Sao Jose EC -
TBD -
EC Sao Bernardo 2
Comercial 3
Linense -
TBD -
Paulista 2
Gremio Prudente 7
Quarter-finals
Noroeste 3
Primavera EC 2
Juventus-SP 0
Uniao Sao Joao 1
Sao Jose EC 3
Comercial 0
Linense 2
Gremio Prudente 3
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -