Sport Picks
Comercial vs Uniao Sao Joao - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Copa Paulista 
Match Events
54'
54'
Bruninho
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Uniao Sao Joao
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Comercial carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Uniao Sao Joao's way, sitting at 50%.
- Comercial have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Uniao Sao Joao, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Uniao Sao Joao here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Comercial Clean Sheet 19%
Uniao Sao Joao Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Comercial | Uniao Sao Joao |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 11 |
| Losses | 13 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Copa Paulista
Uniao Sao Joao vs Comercial
1:1
Jul 31, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:1
Aug 16, 2025 Copa Paulista
Uniao Sao Joao vs Comercial
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:1
Feb 1, 2025 Paulista A3
Comercial vs Uniao Sao Joao
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Comercial Compare
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Uniao Sao Joao Compare
Top Goalscorer Bruninho
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Comercial 24 / 100
Uniao Sao Joao 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Comercial Uniao Sao Joao
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Uniao Sao Joao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Comercial scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Uniao Sao Joao has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Comercial went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Comercial VS Uniao Sao Joao
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Comercial
(Home) 19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0 Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0 Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1 Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0 EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3 Comercial
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0 Sao Jose EC
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0 EC Sao Bernardo
18 Aug
Comercial
0 : 1 Piracicaba
31 Jul
Comercial
0 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0 Noroeste
Page 1 of 4
Uniao Sao Joao
(Away) 03 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1 Gremio Prudente
26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0 Uniao Sao Joao
21 Sept
Juventus-SP
1 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
12 Sept
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 0 Juventus-SP
04 Sept
Bandeirante
3 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0 Uniao Sao Joao
21 Sept
Juventus-SP
1 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
04 Sept
Bandeirante
3 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
22 Aug
Piracicaba
1 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
31 Jul
Comercial
0 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linense | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11:3 | 14 |
| 2 | Bandeirante | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Gremio Prudente | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:7 | 7 |
| 4 | Marilia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noroeste | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 2 | Uniao Sao Joao | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Comercial | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:7 | 7 |
| 4 | Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:6 | 6 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus-SP | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 2 | Primavera EC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Paulista | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:7 | 10 |
| 4 | Osasco Sporting | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:11 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sao Jose EC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | EC Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12:8 | 9 |
| 3 | Sao Caetano | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:9 | 2 |
| 4 | Santo Andre | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
