Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Comerciantes FC vs Union Comercio

Peru Peru

Liga 2 2025 Estadio Max Augustin
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Jimenez O.
31'
Valverde M.
34' Event
Arrieta J.

AI Match Summary

Union Comercio in this Liga 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Union Comercio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Comerciantes FC
30%
Draws
34%
Union Comercio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Comerciantes FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Union Comercio lately — more wins on the board than Comerciantes FC.
  • Comerciantes FC are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Liga 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Comerciantes FC Clean Sheet 20%
Union Comercio Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comerciantes FC Union Comercio
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 17
Draws 12 5
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Union Comercio vs Comerciantes FC
0:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga 2
Comerciantes FC vs Union Comercio
0:1
Jul 20, 2025 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs Comerciantes FC
2:0
Jun 29, 2025 Liga 2
Comerciantes FC vs Union Comercio
2:1
May 11, 2025 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs Comerciantes FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Comerciantes FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Union Comercio Compare

Top Goalscorer Arrieta J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comerciantes FC 36 / 100
Union Comercio 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comerciantes FC Union Comercio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Comerciantes FC scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Comerciantes FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Union Comercio conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Comerciantes FC VS Union Comercio
1 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 25%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Cajamarca833210:814
2Moquegua833214:1113
3Cesar Vallejo832310:1011
4Tacna Heroica824211:1210
5Carlos Mannucci822415:198
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Union Comercio870118:421
2Comerciantes FC823312:711
3ADA Jaen82429:910
4Santos FC831410:1110
5San Marcos81254:226