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Conegliano vs Lavarian Mortean Esperia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Toffoli S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C game between Conegliano and Lavarian Mortean Esperia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lavarian Mortean Esperia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Conegliano
30%
Draws
29%
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Conegliano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Conegliano come out ahead of Lavarian Mortean Esperia on wins alone.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Conegliano taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Conegliano Clean Sheet 68%
Lavarian Mortean Esperia Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Conegliano Lavarian Mortean Esperia
Matches Played 28 6
Wins 12 2
Draws 9 2
Losses 7 2
Goals Scored 1 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Serie D - Group C
Conegliano vs Lavarian Mortean Esperia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Conegliano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Lavarian Mortean Esperia Compare

Top Goalscorer Toffoli S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Conegliano 59 / 100
Lavarian Mortean Esperia 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Conegliano Lavarian Mortean Esperia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Conegliano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Conegliano scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Lavarian Mortean Esperia conceded in 67% of 6 recent games.

Recent resilience: Conegliano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Conegliano VS Lavarian Mortean Esperia
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Conegliano

(Home)
04 Oct
Este
2 : 1
Conegliano
27 Sept
Conegliano
0 : 1
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
20 Sept
Conegliano
1 : 0
FC Obermais
16 Sept
Cjarlins Muzane
0 : 1
Conegliano
13 Sept
Conegliano
0 : 0
Bassano Virtus
Page 1 of 6

Lavarian Mortean Esperia

(Away)
03 Oct
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
0 : 3
Cjarlins Muzane
27 Sept
Conegliano
0 : 1
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
20 Sept
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
1 : 2
Campodarsego
16 Sept
FC Obermais
1 : 1
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
13 Sept
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
0 : 0
Altavilla
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cjarlins Muzane 6 5 0 1 17:5 15
2 Luparense FC 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
3 Calcio San Dona 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
4 Mestre 6 2 4 0 9:6 10
5 Campodarsego 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
6 Clodiense 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
7 Bassano Virtus 6 2 3 1 6:3 9
8 Calvi Noale 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
9 Lavarian Mortean Esperia 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
10 Este 6 2 1 3 5:5 7
11 Legnago Salus 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
12 Conegliano 6 2 1 3 3:7 7
13 Altavilla 6 1 3 2 14:9 6
14 Triestina 6 1 3 2 6:8 6
15 Virtus Bolzano 6 2 0 4 5:18 6
16 FC Obermais 6 1 2 3 6:11 5
17 Schio 6 0 4 2 3:6 4
18 Brian Lignano 6 1 0 5 7:14 3
Promotion - Serie D - Group C (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C (Play Out)