Sport Picks

Congo vs Uganda - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Alphonse Massemba-Débat, Brazzaville

Congo

0 - 1

Uganda

Our Tip

Match Events

10'

Sub

Aucho K. In: Byaruhanga B.

Out: Aucho K.

25'

Ssekiganda R.

55'

Mutyaba T.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Uganda advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%

Congo

35%

Draws

52%

Uganda

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Uganda come out ahead of Congo on wins alone.
Uganda are the model's pick here, at 60%.
Uganda arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Uganda, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 5 times recently and Uganda have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%

Congo Clean Sheet 20%

Uganda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Congo	Uganda
Matches Played	28	26
Wins	3	12
Draws	9	5
Losses	16	9
Goals Scored	0.64	1.31
Goals Conceded	1.82	1.23
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Congo vs Uganda

0:1

Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Uganda vs Congo

2:0

Nov 12, 2017 World Championship

Congo vs Uganda

1:1

Nov 12, 2016 World Championship

Uganda vs Congo

1:0

Jun 16, 2012 Africa Cup of Nations

Uganda vs Congo

4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Congo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Mutyaba T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.08

Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Congo 20 / 100

Uganda 68 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Congo Uganda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Uganda conceded in 62% of 26 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Congo's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Congo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Congo VS Uganda

0.5 Goals Scored 0.88

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75

50% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Congo

(Home)

29 Sept

Congo

1 : 1

Cameroon

24 Sept

Namibia

1 : 0

Congo

14 Oct

Morocco

1 : 0

Congo

08 Oct

Niger

3 : 1

Congo

05 Sept

Congo

1 : 1

Tanzania

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Uganda

(Away)

05 Oct

Uganda

1 : 1

D.R. Congo

02 Oct

D.R. Congo

0 : 2

Uganda

29 Sept

Uganda

1 : 0

Libya

24 Sept

Tunisia

1 : 1

Uganda

30 Dec

Uganda

1 : 3

Nigeria

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