Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier 2025/2026 Essity Stadium, Flint
Connahs Q. Logo

Connahs Q.

1 - 1
FT
Caernarfon Logo

Caernarfon

Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Cieslewicz A.
26'
Edwards N.
26'
Roberts C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier 2025/2026 game between Connahs Q. and Caernarfon finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Connahs Q.
15%
Draws
59%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caernarfon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Caernarfon haven't matched Connahs Q.'s recent run of results.
  • Connahs Q. are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Connahs Q. Clean Sheet 19%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Connahs Q. Caernarfon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.93 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:4
Feb 6, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:1
Jan 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:2
Sep 23, 2025 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Connahs Q. 85 / 100
Caernarfon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Connahs Q. Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Connahs Q. found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Caernarfon conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Connahs Q. stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Connahs Q. VS Caernarfon
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Connahs Q.

(Home)
02 Aug
Connahs Q.
1 : 2
Caernarfon
16 Jul
FC Ballkani
3 : 2
Connahs Q.
08 Jul
Connahs Q.
0 : 0
FC Ballkani
27 Jun
Queen of the South
0 : 1
Connahs Q.
23 Jun
Larne
1 : 0
Connahs Q.
Page 1 of 6

Caernarfon

(Away)
02 Aug
Connahs Q.
1 : 2
Caernarfon
16 Jul
Levadia
5 : 0
Caernarfon
09 Jul
Caernarfon
0 : 5
Levadia
20 Jun
Glentoran
1 : 2
Caernarfon
18 Apr
Caernarfon
2 : 0
Penybont
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 32 26 2 4 81:25 80
2 Connahs Q. 32 16 10 6 61:38 58
3 Barry Town 32 12 10 10 43:33 46
4 Caernarfon 32 12 9 11 56:47 45
5 Colwyn Bay 32 12 9 11 41:37 45
6 Penybont 32 11 8 13 39:49 41
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)