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Cook Islands vs New Caledonia

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games
Cook Islands Logo

Cook Islands

0 - 8
FT
New Caledonia Logo

New Caledonia

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Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Pacific Games game between Cook Islands and New Caledonia finished 0-8, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New Caledonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Cook Islands
15%
Draws
57%
New Caledonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Caledonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and New Caledonia come out ahead of Cook Islands on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • New Caledonia have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 19%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands New Caledonia
Matches Played 26 21
Wins 6 13
Draws 2 1
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 0.81 2.52
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.58 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 24, 2023 Pacific Games
Cook Islands vs New Caledonia
0:8
Aug 30, 2007 World Championship
New Caledonia vs Cook Islands
3:0
May 17, 2004 World Championship
New Caledonia vs Cook Islands
8:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands 36 / 100
New Caledonia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands New Caledonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New Caledonia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 6.33 goals when they meet.

New Caledonia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Cook Islands scored in 50% of their last 26 outings.

New Caledonia has conceded goals in 57% of their last 21 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cook Islands VS New Caledonia
0.67 Goals Scored 0.88
1.67 Goals Conceded 0.5
67% Over 1.5 38%
67% Over 2.5 25%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cook Islands

(Home)
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
22 Mar
Samoa
1 : 0
Cook Islands
30 Nov
Samoa
3 : 0
Cook Islands
Page 1 of 6

New Caledonia

(Away)
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
08 Oct
Gibraltar
0 : 2
New Caledonia
24 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 3
New Zealand
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 2 2 0 0 15:0 6
2 Cook Islands 2 1 0 1 2:9 3
3 Tonga 2 0 0 2 1:9 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vanuatu 2 1 1 0 7:1 4
2 Papua New Guinea 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
3 Tuvalu 2 0 0 2 0:9 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fiji 2 1 1 0 10:0 4
2 Tahiti 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
3 Northern Mariana Islands 2 0 0 2 0:15 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Solomon Islands 2 2 0 0 12:0 6
2 Samoa 2 1 0 1 10:1 3
3 American Samoa 2 0 0 2 0:21 0
Promotion - Pacific Games (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games (5th-8th places)
Promotion - Pacific Games (9th-12th places)