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Cook Islands vs Papua New Guinea

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games
Mon, Nov 27, 2023
0 - 3
08:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cook Islands host Papua New Guinea in the Pacific Games. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Cook Islands at 0.75 goals for, 1.5 against; Papua New Guinea at 1.13 for, 2.38 against. Head-to-head, Cook Islands have won 0 to Papua New Guinea's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Nov 27, 2023, ending 0:3. xG projections (1.56 - 1.31) back Papua New Guinea to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Cook Islands
6%
Draws
90%
Papua New Guinea
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Papua New Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Papua New Guinea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Papua New Guinea are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Pacific Games form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 18%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands Papua New Guinea
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 6 11
Draws 2 6
Losses 19 12
Goals Scored 0.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 27, 2023 Pacific Games
Cook Islands vs Papua New Guinea
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands 10 / 100
Papua New Guinea 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands Papua New Guinea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Papua New Guinea conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Cook Islands scored in 48% of their last 27 outings.

Recent resilience: Cook Islands stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cook Islands VS Papua New Guinea
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

5th place
Tahiti2
Papua New Guinea0
Samoa3
Cook Islands0
Semi-finals
Tahiti2
Samoa1
Cook Islands0
Papua New Guinea3