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Cook Islands vs Samoa

World World

World Cup 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Sale J.
39' Event
Saghabi T.
40'
Saghabi T.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Cook Islands advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Cook Islands
15%
Draws
57%
Samoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Cook Islands haven't matched Samoa's recent run of results.
  • 28% — that's where the model lands on Cook Islands taking it.
  • Samoa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Samoa, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Samoa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 10%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands Samoa
Matches Played 25 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 2 1
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 0.84 1.37
Goals Conceded 2.36 3.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Samoa vs Cook Islands
1:0
Nov 30, 2023 Pacific Games
Samoa vs Cook Islands
3:0
Sep 2, 2015 World Championship
Cook Islands vs Samoa
1:0
Nov 23, 2011 World Championship
Cook Islands vs Samoa
2:3
Nov 12, 1996 World Championship
Samoa vs Cook Islands
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cook Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Saghabi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Samoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands 83 / 100
Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cook Islands Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samoa has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Away concern: Samoa has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Cook Islands found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (25 games).

Scoring Trends

Cook Islands VS Samoa
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
2.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cook Islands

(Home)
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
22 Mar
Samoa
1 : 0
Cook Islands
30 Nov
Samoa
3 : 0
Cook Islands
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Samoa

(Away)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
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