Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cook Islands W vs Tonga W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Haugen L.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Cook Islands W
15%
Draws
34%
Tonga W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cook Islands W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cook Islands W lately — more wins on the board than Tonga W.
  • Model gives Cook Islands W a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Cook Islands W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tonga W, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Cook Islands W Clean Sheet 17%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands W Tonga W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 4 2
Losses 17 20
Goals Scored 0.9 1.17
Goals Conceded 2.1 3.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2025 OFC Nations Cup Women
Cook Islands W vs Tonga W
0:1
Jul 16, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W vs Cook Islands W
1:1
Nov 25, 2018 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W vs Cook Islands W
1:0
Oct 27, 2014 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W vs Cook Islands W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cook Islands W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Tonga W Compare

Top Goalscorer Haugen L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands W 39 / 100
Tonga W 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands W Tonga W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cook Islands W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tonga W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Cook Islands W scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Cook Islands W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cook Islands W VS Tonga W
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cook Islands W

(Home)
07 Jun
Cook Islands W
3 : 0
Afghanistan W
03 Jun
Cook Islands W
1 : 0
Afghanistan W
01 Dec
American Samoa W
4 : 0
Cook Islands W
29 Nov
Tahiti W
0 : 1
Cook Islands W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
Page 1 of 6

Tonga W

(Away)
02 Dec
Tonga W
4 : 1
Tahiti W
28 Nov
Tonga W
0 : 3
American Samoa W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0
Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0
Tonga W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

5th place
Tahiti W 0
Vanuatu W 1
Cook Islands W 0
Tonga W 1