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Corinthians vs Sao Paulo

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Neo Quimica Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Corinthians play Sao Paulo in the Serie A Betano. It looks like a close match. Recently, Corinthians averaged 1.07 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. Sao Paulo averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Corinthians won 2, Sao Paulo won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Corinthians and 1.19 for Sao Paulo. This points to a Corinthians double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Corinthians
24%
Draws
37%
Sao Paulo
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Corinthians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Corinthians picked up more points recently compared to Sao Paulo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Corinthians Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corinthians Sao Paulo
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.82 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie A Betano
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
3:2
Jan 18, 2026 Paulista
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
1:1
Nov 20, 2025 Serie A Betano
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
3:1
Jul 20, 2025 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
2:0
Jan 26, 2025 Paulista
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corinthians Compare

Top Goalscorer Raniele
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheuzinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sao Paulo Compare

Top Goalscorer Luciano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corinthians 39 / 100
Sao Paulo 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corinthians Sao Paulo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Corinthians or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +23.2%
3.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Corinthians attacking → ← attacking Sao Paulo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Corinthians scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Sao Paulo let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Corinthians went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sao Paulo lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 49
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Atletico-MG1873822:2324
10Corinthians1866618:1924
11Cruzeiro1866624:2824
12Botafogo RJ1764731:3122
13Vitoria1764721:2522
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1856726:2921
16Gremio1856720:2321
17Vasco1855822:2920
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339