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Coritiba vs Bahia

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estádio Couto Pereira
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Tiago Coser
Own Goal
30'
Acevedo N.
45'
Sub
Leo Vieira In: Joao Paulo
Out: Leo Vieira

AI Match Summary

Coritiba in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Coritiba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Coritiba
40%
Draws
29%
Bahia
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Bahia at 1.5 per game, Coritiba at 1.13.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bahia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 14%
Bahia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coritiba Bahia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
3:2
Sep 14, 2023 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
2:4
May 7, 2023 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Coritiba
3:1
Nov 16, 2020 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
1:2
Aug 12, 2020 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Coritiba
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coritiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira Melo B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lavega J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Everaldo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coritiba 31 / 100
Bahia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coritiba Bahia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bahia conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Attacking prowess: Coritiba scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Coritiba has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Coritiba VS Bahia
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1885527:2329
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Botafogo RJ1874733:3225
10Vitoria1874722:2525
11Atletico-MG1873822:2324
12Corinthians1866618:1924
13Cruzeiro1866624:2824
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Gremio1856720:2321
16Santos1956827:3121
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC18161117:359