Sport Picks
Match Events
26'
26'
Tiago Coser
Own Goal
30'
30'
Acevedo N.
45'
45'
Sub
Leo Vieira In: Joao Paulo
Out: Leo Vieira
AI Match Summary
Coritiba in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Coritiba.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
20%
52%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bahia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Bahia lately — more wins on the board than Coritiba.
- Model gives Bahia a 52% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Bahia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 16%
Bahia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Coritiba | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 12 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 25, 2026 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
3:2
Sep 14, 2023 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
2:4
May 7, 2023 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Coritiba
3:1
Nov 16, 2020 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
1:2
Aug 12, 2020 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Coritiba
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Coritiba Compare
Top Goalscorer Ferreira Melo B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lavega J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Bahia Compare
Top Goalscorer Everaldo
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Coritiba 11 / 100
Bahia 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Coritiba Bahia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Bahia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.
Coritiba scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Bahia has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Coritiba has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Coritiba VS Bahia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Coritiba
(Home) 19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0 Coritiba
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3 Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2 Mirassol
31 Aug
Remo
2 : 3 Coritiba
23 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1 Corinthians
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3 Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2 Mirassol
23 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1 Corinthians
08 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
31 Jul
Coritiba
0 : 1 Cruzeiro
Page 1 of 3
Bahia
(Away) 14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1 Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3 Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2 Internacional
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2 Bahia
16 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 3 Bahia
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3 Bahia
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2 Bahia
16 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 3 Bahia
30 Jul
Fluminense
0 : 0 Bahia
21 Jul
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Bahia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36:32 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 41:40 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33:31 | 36 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32:30 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo RJ | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41:45 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28:42 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:32 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33:42 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34:41 | 31 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30:38 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30:36 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32:47 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29:53 | 18 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)
