Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Coritiba vs Bahia

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Tiago Coser
Own Goal
30'
Acevedo N.
45'
Sub
Leo Vieira In: Joao Paulo
Out: Leo Vieira

AI Match Summary

Coritiba in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Coritiba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Coritiba
33%
Draws
40%
Bahia
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Bahia at 1.88 per game, Coritiba at 1.13.
  • Model gives Bahia a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bahia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 11%
Bahia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coritiba Bahia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
3:2
Sep 14, 2023 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
2:4
May 7, 2023 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Coritiba
3:1
Nov 16, 2020 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Bahia
1:2
Aug 12, 2020 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Coritiba
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coritiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira Melo B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lavega J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Everaldo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coritiba 27 / 100
Bahia 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coritiba Bahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAH Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bahia conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Attacking prowess: Coritiba scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Coritiba has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Coritiba VS Bahia
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Coritiba

(Home)
30 May
Flamengo RJ
3 : 0
Coritiba
25 May
Coritiba
3 : 2
Bahia
17 May
Santos
0 : 3
Coritiba
13 May
Coritiba
0 : 2
Santos
09 May
Coritiba
2 : 2
Internacional
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Bahia

(Away)
17 Jul
Bahia
2 : 0
Chapecoense-SC
12 Jul
Fluminense
2 : 0
Bahia
04 Jul
Bahia
4 : 1
Montevideo City
30 May
Bahia
2 : 1
Botafogo RJ
25 May
Coritiba
3 : 2
Bahia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1995529:2432
4Bragantino1993726:2030
5Athletico-PR1893624:1830
6Bahia1885527:2329
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Botafogo RJ1874733:3225
10Vitoria1874722:2525
11Atletico-MG1873822:2324
12Corinthians1866618:1924
13Cruzeiro1866624:2824
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1956827:3121
16Gremio1956821:2521
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Mirassol1854920:2519
19Remo1846821:2918
20Chapecoense-SC18161117:359
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)