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Coritiba vs Sao Joseense

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Sub
Niltinho In: Vinicius
Out: Niltinho
52' Event
Lucas Gaucho
57'
Murillo Lima

AI Match Summary

Sao Joseense in this Paranaense matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Joseense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Coritiba
30%
Draws
29%
Sao Joseense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Coritiba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Coritiba haven't matched Sao Joseense's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Paranaense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 22%
Sao Joseense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coritiba Sao Joseense
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.26 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.58 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Paranaense
Coritiba vs Sao Joseense
0:1
Jan 15, 2025 Paranaense
Coritiba vs Sao Joseense
3:0
Jan 22, 2024 Paranaense
Coritiba vs Sao Joseense
2:0
Feb 12, 2023 Paranaense
Coritiba vs Sao Joseense
0:0
Feb 5, 2022 Paranaense
Sao Joseense vs Coritiba
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coritiba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Sao Joseense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Gaucho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coritiba 37 / 100
Sao Joseense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coritiba Sao Joseense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Joseense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Coritiba found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Coritiba has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Sao Joseense let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Coritiba VS Sao Joseense
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Coritiba

(Home)
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
31 Aug
Remo
2 : 3
Coritiba
23 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1
Corinthians
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Sao Joseense

(Away)
19 Sept
Sao Joseense
1 : 1
Foz do Iguacu
13 Sept
Paranavai-PR
1 : 0
Sao Joseense
07 Sept
Londrina B
3 : 2
Sao Joseense
30 Aug
Sao Joseense
1 : 0
Azuriz
28 Jun
Cianorte
1 : 1
Sao Joseense
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Londrina 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
2 Foz do Iguacu 6 3 2 1 11:10 11
3 Athletico-PR 6 3 1 2 10:6 10
4 Sao Joseense 6 3 1 2 4:3 10
5 Maringa FC 6 2 2 2 9:7 8
6 FC Cascavel 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
Promotion - Paranaense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense (Relegation - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Azuriz 6 3 2 1 5:4 11
2 Coritiba 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Cianorte 6 1 4 1 8:8 7
4 Operario-PR 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
5 Clube Andraus Brasil 6 1 1 4 6:13 4
6 Galo Maringa 6 1 0 5 5:13 3
Promotion - Paranaense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense (Relegation - Play Offs)