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Corumbaense vs Dourados

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Joao Vitor

AI Match Summary

Dourados in this Sul-Matogrossense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dourados.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Corumbaense
30%
Draws
29%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Corumbaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Dourados have won more games recently than Corumbaense.
  • Model gives Corumbaense a 41% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 20%
Dourados Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corumbaense Dourados
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 12
Draws 9 11
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.2 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Dourados
2:0
Mar 8, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Corumbaense
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Dourados
2:0
Feb 8, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Dourados
0:1
Apr 7, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Corumbaense
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corumbaense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Dourados Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Vitor
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corumbaense 67 / 100
Dourados 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corumbaense Dourados

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Corumbaense scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Dourados's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Corumbaense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Corumbaense VS Dourados
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Corumbaense

(Home)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
Page 1 of 6

Dourados

(Away)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)