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Costa Amalfi vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Malcore G.
28' Event
Javi Morales
44' Event
Opoola M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 game between Costa Amalfi and Casarano finished 0-7, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Casarano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Costa Amalfi
20%
Draws
51%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Costa Amalfi haven't matched Casarano's recent run of results.
  • Casarano are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Costa Amalfi Clean Sheet 12%
Casarano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Costa Amalfi Casarano
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 3 20
Draws 10 4
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.8 1.91
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 5, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Costa Amalfi vs Casarano
0:7
Sep 8, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Costa Amalfi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Costa Amalfi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Saraniti A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Malcore G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Costa Amalfi 14 / 100
Casarano 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Costa Amalfi Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Casarano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Defensive concern: Casarano conceded in 71% of 34 recent games.

Costa Amalfi found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Costa Amalfi remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Casarano
0 Goals Scored 2.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Costa Amalfi

(Home)
04 May
Angri
3 : 1
Costa Amalfi
27 Apr
Costa Amalfi
1 : 4
Acerrana
17 Apr
Costa Amalfi
0 : 2
Gravina
12 Apr
Ischia
1 : 1
Costa Amalfi
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2
Matera
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Casarano

(Away)
27 Sept
Casarano
0 : 1
Monopoli
19 Sept
A.C. Savoia
1 : 1
Casarano
15 Sept
Casarano
1 : 0
Audace Cerignola
11 Sept
Casarano
3 : 1
Barletta
05 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)