Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Costa do Sol vs Ferroviario Maputo

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Costa do Sol in this Mocambola matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Costa do Sol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Costa do Sol
39%
Draws
31%
Ferroviario Maputo
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Ferroviario Maputo haven't matched Costa do Sol's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Costa do Sol here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Costa do Sol Clean Sheet 68%
Ferroviario Maputo Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Costa do Sol Ferroviario Maputo
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 13 11
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.13 0.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Ferroviario Maputo
1:0
Nov 24, 2025 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Ferroviario Maputo
2:1
Aug 16, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Costa do Sol
0:1
Aug 18, 2024 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Ferroviario Maputo
1:1
Apr 28, 2024 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Costa do Sol
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Costa do Sol 41 / 100
Ferroviario Maputo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Costa do Sol Ferroviario Maputo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick COS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Costa do Sol found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Ferroviario Maputo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Costa do Sol went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Costa do Sol VS Ferroviario Maputo
1.13 Goals Scored 0.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
38% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Costa do Sol

(Home)
19 Jul
Costa do Sol
2 : 1
ENH Vilankulo
26 Jun
Ferroviario Lichinga
2 : 1
Costa do Sol
20 Jun
Costa do Sol
2 : 2
UD Songo
16 Jun
Costa do Sol
1 : 0
Chingale de Tete
20 May
Sofala
1 : 1
Costa do Sol
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Ferroviario Maputo

(Away)
25 Jun
ENH Vilankulo
0 : 0
Ferroviario Maputo
21 Jun
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 1
Ferroviario Beira
18 Jun
Ferroviario Maputo
2 : 0
Sofala
22 May
UD Songo
2 : 0
Ferroviario Maputo
18 May
Chingale de Tete
0 : 0
Ferroviario Maputo
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ferroviario Beira954011:319
2UD Songo944112:816
3Costa do Sol943212:815
4Associacao Black Bulls835010:314
5Ferroviario Lichinga74218:414
6Ferroviario Nampula741211:1113
7Ferroviario Nacala73316:412
8Sofala92435:1010
9ENH Vilankulo916210:99
10Ferroviario Maputo82243:58
11AD Pemba72144:97
12Maxaquene90454:114
13Chingale de Tete90451:84
14Baia de Pemba70343:73
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)