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Covadonga vs Caudal Deportivo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Fassani G.
47' Event
Cid C.
52' Event
Fassani G.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 2 game between Covadonga and Caudal Deportivo finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Covadonga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Covadonga
20%
Draws
28%
Caudal Deportivo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Covadonga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Covadonga come out ahead of Caudal Deportivo on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Covadonga's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 13%
Caudal Deportivo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Covadonga Caudal Deportivo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 20 17
Draws 4 3
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Caudal Deportivo
4:0
Jun 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Caudal Deportivo
2:4
May 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Caudal Deportivo vs Covadonga
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Caudal Deportivo vs Covadonga
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Caudal Deportivo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Covadonga Compare

Top Goalscorer Fassani G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cid C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Caudal Deportivo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Covadonga 84 / 100
Caudal Deportivo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Covadonga Caudal Deportivo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Covadonga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Covadonga found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Covadonga has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Caudal Deportivo conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Covadonga VS Caudal Deportivo
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Covadonga

(Home)
04 Oct
Covadonga
2 : 1
Club Siero
26 Sept
CD Colunga
1 : 2
Covadonga
20 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Caudal Deportivo
13 Sept
Langreo
2 : 2
Covadonga
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Aviles Stadium
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Caudal Deportivo

(Away)
04 Oct
Praviano
1 : 1
Caudal Deportivo
26 Sept
Caudal Deportivo
2 : 0
L Entregu CF
20 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Caudal Deportivo
13 Sept
Caudal Deportivo
2 : 1
Union Club Ceares
09 Sept
Salamanca CF UDS
3 : 2
Caudal Deportivo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Covadonga 5 4 1 0 14:4 13
2 Gijon B 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
3 CD Mosconia 6 3 3 0 10:3 12
4 Club Siero 6 4 0 2 9:3 12
5 Condal 5 3 2 0 8:2 11
6 CD Colunga 6 3 2 1 14:12 11
7 Caudal Deportivo 5 3 1 1 8:6 10
8 Lealtad 6 3 1 2 6:4 10
9 Langreo 6 2 2 2 10:9 8
10 Gijon Industrial 5 2 1 2 8:6 7
11 Praviano 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
12 EI San Martin 5 1 2 2 5:10 5
13 Union Club Ceares 6 1 1 4 9:13 4
14 L Entregu CF 6 1 1 4 2:9 4
15 Llanes 5 0 3 2 6:12 3
16 Aviles Stadium 5 1 0 4 2:9 3
17 Astur 5 0 2 3 3:8 2
18 Andes CF 5 0 1 4 2:9 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 2 (Play Offs)