Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Covadonga

1 - 1

Lenense

Our Tip

Match Events

70'

Sanchez P.

80'

Alvarez V.

90'

Korka J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Covadonga

39%

Draws

31%

Lenense

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Covadonga lately — more wins on the board than Lenense.
Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Covadonga have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Covadonga Clean Sheet 68%

Lenense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Covadonga	Lenense
Matches Played	34	30
Wins	24	6
Draws	4	8
Losses	6	16
Goals Scored	3	1.88
Goals Conceded	0.88	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	3.00	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Covadonga vs Lenense

Possession: 42% - 50% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Lenense vs Covadonga

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

1:4

Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Lenense vs Covadonga

Possession: 43% - 56% Cards: 3 - 2

0:3

Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Covadonga vs Lenense

Possession: 57% - 58% Cards: 0 - 1

3:0

Apr 13, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2

Covadonga vs Lenense

Possession: 53% - 50% Cards: 4 - 1

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Covadonga Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez V.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.31

Avg xA / game 1.5

Lenense Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Covadonga 41 / 100

Lenense 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Covadonga Lenense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick COV Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Covadonga found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (34 games).

Lenense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Covadonga went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Covadonga VS Lenense

3 Goals Scored 1.88

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75

100% Over 1.5 88%

75% Over 2.5 63%

50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Llanera	34	29	4	1	71:18	91
2	Covadonga	34	25	5	4	88:24	80
3	Gijon B	34	19	10	5	79:29	67
4	Caudal Deportivo	34	20	6	8	59:39	66
5	CD Mosconia	34	16	7	11	46:29	55
6	EI San Martin	34	14	9	11	36:36	51
7	L Entregu CF	34	13	10	11	41:42	49
8	Union Club Ceares	34	12	9	13	39:40	45
9	Praviano	34	11	9	14	36:42	42
10	Club Siero	34	11	8	15	39:49	41
11	CD Colunga	34	10	9	15	38:59	39
12	Llanes	34	8	13	13	44:51	37
13	Aviles Stadium	34	6	15	13	21:40	33
14	Gijon Industrial	34	7	11	16	36:57	32
15	Lenense	34	7	11	16	36:58	32
16	Navarro	34	6	13	15	38:53	31
17	Tuilla	34	7	6	21	31:60	27
18	Real Titanico	34	3	9	22	22:74	18