Sport Picks
Match Events
70'
70'
Sanchez P.
80'
80'
Alvarez V.
90'
90'
Korka J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
30%
27%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Covadonga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Covadonga lately — more wins on the board than Lenense.
- Model gives Covadonga a 43% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Covadonga have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 55%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 68%
Lenense Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Covadonga | Lenense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 6 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 2.6 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.02 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Lenense
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Lenense vs Covadonga
1:4
Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Lenense vs Covadonga
0:3
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Lenense
3:0
Apr 13, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Lenense
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Covadonga Compare
Top Goalscorer Alvarez V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 1.01
Lenense Compare
Top Goalscorer Sanchez P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Covadonga 95 / 100
Lenense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Covadonga Lenense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Covadonga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Covadonga found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).
Lenense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Covadonga went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Covadonga VS Lenense
2.25 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.8
88% Over 1.5 80%
75% Over 2.5 60%
50% Over 3.5 60%
Recent Form & Match History
Covadonga
(Home) 26 Sept
CD Colunga
1 : 2 Covadonga
20 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0 Caudal Deportivo
13 Sept
Langreo
2 : 2 Covadonga
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0 Aviles Stadium
29 Aug
Gijon Industrial
0 : 0 Covadonga
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20 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0 Caudal Deportivo
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0 Aviles Stadium
07 Jun
Covadonga
2 : 4 Caudal Deportivo
24 May
Covadonga
2 : 1 CD Mosconia
09 May
Covadonga
0 : 2 Real Titanico
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Lenense
(Away) 10 May
Lenense
0 : 1 Gijon B
03 May
L Entregu CF
1 : 3 Lenense
26 Apr
Lenense
3 : 3 CD Colunga
19 Apr
CD Mosconia
2 : 0 Lenense
12 Apr
Lenense
4 : 2 Union Club Ceares
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03 May
L Entregu CF
1 : 3 Lenense
19 Apr
CD Mosconia
2 : 0 Lenense
02 Apr
Caudal Deportivo
4 : 1 Lenense
22 Mar
Navarro
1 : 2 Lenense
08 Mar
Praviano
0 : 1 Lenense
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Llanera | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 71:18 | 91 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88:24 | 80 |
| 3 | Gijon B | 34 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 79:29 | 67 |
| 4 | Caudal Deportivo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 59:39 | 66 |
| 5 | CD Mosconia | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 46:29 | 55 |
| 6 | EI San Martin | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:36 | 51 |
| 7 | L Entregu CF | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 41:42 | 49 |
| 8 | Union Club Ceares | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39:40 | 45 |
| 9 | Praviano | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 36:42 | 42 |
| 10 | Club Siero | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 39:49 | 41 |
| 11 | CD Colunga | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:59 | 39 |
| 12 | Llanes | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 44:51 | 37 |
| 13 | Aviles Stadium | 34 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 21:40 | 33 |
| 14 | Gijon Industrial | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 36:57 | 32 |
| 15 | Lenense | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 36:58 | 32 |
| 16 | Navarro | 34 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 38:53 | 31 |
| 17 | Tuilla | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 31:60 | 27 |
| 18 | Real Titanico | 34 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 22:74 | 18 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
