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Coxim vs Aguia Negra Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Tche Tche
77' Event
Salas A.
78' Event
Douglas Washington

AI Match Summary

Coxim in this Sul-Matogrossense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Coxim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Coxim
30%
Draws
16%
Aguia Negra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Coxim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aguia Negra lately — more wins on the board than Coxim.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Coxim have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Coxim Clean Sheet 13%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coxim Aguia Negra
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 17 11
Goals Scored 0.87 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Coxim vs Aguia Negra
2:1
Mar 13, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Coxim
5:0
Feb 16, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Coxim vs Aguia Negra
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coxim Compare

Top Goalscorer Tche Tche
1 Goals
Assists Leader Salas A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Aguia Negra Compare

Top Goalscorer Douglas Washington
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coxim 30 / 100
Aguia Negra 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coxim Aguia Negra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Coxim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Aguia Negra let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Coxim remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Aguia Negra lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Coxim VS Aguia Negra
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Coxim

(Home)
02 Mar
Coxim
0 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Coxim
16 Feb
Coxim
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
09 Feb
Coxim
0 : 2
Ivinhema
05 Feb
Dourados
2 : 2
Coxim
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Aguia Negra

(Away)
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Ivinhema
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
15 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 1
Corumbaense
11 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)