Sport Picks

Poland

Ekstraklasa 2025/2026 Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Pogon Szczecin

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cracovia play Pogon Szczecin in the Ekstraklasa 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cracovia averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Pogon Szczecin averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, Cracovia won 1, Pogon Szczecin won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Cracovia and 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin. This points to a Pogon Szczecin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Cracovia

31%

Draws

42%

Pogon Szczecin

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Pogon Szczecin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Cracovia picked up more points recently compared to Pogon Szczecin.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%

Cracovia Clean Sheet 16%

Pogon Szczecin Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cracovia	Pogon Szczecin
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	5	12
Draws	16	5
Losses	8	11
Goals Scored	1.03	1.36
Goals Conceded	1.28	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Ekstraklasa

Cracovia vs Pogon Szczecin

Possession: 47% - 54% Cards: 3 - 4

1:1

Oct 25, 2025 Ekstraklasa

Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

Mar 14, 2025 Ekstraklasa

Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia

Possession: 45% - 44% Cards: 4 - 2

5:2

Sep 14, 2024 Ekstraklasa

Cracovia vs Pogon Szczecin

Possession: 60% - 49% Cards: 1 - 3

2:1

Mar 30, 2024 Ekstraklasa

Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia

Possession: 50% - 44% Cards: 4 - 0

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cracovia Compare

Top Goalscorer Zahiroleslam K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Pogon Szczecin Compare

Top Goalscorer Acosta K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cracovia 28 / 100

Pogon Szczecin 40 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cracovia Pogon Szczecin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pogon Szczecin or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +42%

5.26

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cracovia attacking → ← attacking Pogon Szczecin

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cracovia scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Pogon Szczecin let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Cracovia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Pogon Szczecin lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 41

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	34	16	12	6	62:45	60
2	Gornik Zabrze	34	16	8	10	50:38	56
3	Jagiellonia	34	15	11	8	56:41	56
4	Rakow Czestochowa	34	16	7	11	51:40	55
5	GKS Katowice	34	14	8	12	51:45	50
6	Legia	34	12	13	9	42:37	49
7	Zaglebie	34	13	9	12	45:38	48
8	Wisla Plock	34	12	10	12	34:38	46
9	Pogon Szczecin	34	13	6	15	47:49	45
10	Radomiak Radom	34	11	11	12	52:53	44
11	Korona Kielce	34	11	10	13	40:40	43
12	Motor Lublin	34	10	13	11	46:53	43
13	Cracovia	34	9	15	10	39:42	42
14	Widzew Lodz	34	12	6	16	41:41	42
15	Piast Gliwice	34	11	8	15	42:46	41
16	Lechia Gdansk	34	12	7	15	62:65	38
17	Arka Gdynia	34	9	9	16	34:61	36
18	Termalica Bruk-Bet	34	9	7	18	43:65	34