Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Crewe vs Northampton

England England

League Two Alexandra Stadium, Crewe
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Crewe in this League Two matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Crewe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Crewe
30%
Draws
23%
Northampton
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Crewe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Crewe have won more games recently than Northampton.
  • Model gives Crewe a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Crewe Clean Sheet 68%
Northampton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crewe Northampton
Matches Played 26 31
Wins 12 5
Draws 6 6
Losses 8 20
Goals Scored 1.27 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 League Two
Crewe vs Northampton
1:0
Mar 18, 2023 League Two
Northampton vs Crewe
1:0
Aug 20, 2022 League Two
Crewe vs Northampton
2:2
Mar 20, 2021 League One
Northampton vs Crewe
0:1
Dec 12, 2020 League One
Crewe vs Northampton
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crewe 68 / 100
Northampton 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crewe Northampton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Crewe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Crewe scored in 77% of their last 26 games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Crewe remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Crewe VS Northampton
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Crewe

(Home)
15 Aug
Crawley Town
0 : 1
Crewe
08 Aug
Crewe
2 : 1
Accrington
01 Aug
Chester
0 : 0
Crewe
25 Jul
Crewe
1 : 2
Birmingham
21 Jul
Telford
0 : 3
Crewe
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Northampton

(Away)
18 Aug
Northampton
0 : 3
Brighton U21
15 Aug
Northampton
0 : 0
Swindon
08 Aug
Leicester
1 : 0
Northampton
01 Aug
Solihull Moors
2 : 4
Northampton
28 Jul
Cambridge Utd
0 : 0
Northampton
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Walsall 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
2 Newport 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
3 Barnet 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
4 Oldham 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
5 Tranmere 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 York City 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
7 Cheltenham 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
8 Crewe 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
9 Grimsby 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
10 Fleetwood Town 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
11 Colchester 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
12 Accrington 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
13 Northampton 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
14 Swindon 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Bristol Rovers 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
16 Rotherham 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
17 Chesterfield 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Crawley Town 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
19 Exeter 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
20 Salford 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
21 Port Vale 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
22 Shrewsbury 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
23 Rochdale 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
24 Gillingham 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)