Sport Picks
Crewe vs Northampton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
League Two Alexandra Stadium, Crewe 
Match Events
37'
37'
March J.
53'
53'
March J.
66'
66'
Sub
Briggs L. In: O'Brien Whitmarsh J.
Out: Briggs L.
AI Match Summary
Crewe in this League Two matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Crewe.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Crewe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Crewe have won more games recently than Northampton.
- Model gives Crewe a 47% chance of winning this.
- Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Crewe Clean Sheet 68%
Northampton Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Crewe | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 10 | 3 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 22, 2026 League Two
Crewe vs Northampton
1:0
Mar 18, 2023 League Two
Northampton vs Crewe
1:0
Aug 20, 2022 League Two
Crewe vs Northampton
2:2
Mar 20, 2021 League One
Northampton vs Crewe
0:1
Dec 12, 2020 League One
Crewe vs Northampton
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Crewe Compare
Top Goalscorer March J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Northampton Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Crewe 95 / 100
Northampton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Crewe Northampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Crewe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.
Crewe scored in 79% of their last 28 games.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Solid form: Crewe remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Crewe VS Northampton
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Crewe
(Home) 06 Oct
Blackpool
3 : 2 Crewe
03 Oct
Crewe
3 : 1 Bristol Rovers
26 Sept
Rotherham
1 : 1 Crewe
22 Sept
Crewe
4 : 1 Aston Villa U21
19 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1 Shrewsbury
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Crewe
3 : 1 Bristol Rovers
22 Sept
Crewe
4 : 1 Aston Villa U21
19 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1 Shrewsbury
05 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1 York City
01 Sept
Crewe
2 : 2 Walsall
Page 1 of 3
Northampton
(Away) 06 Oct
Cambridge Utd
2 : 1 Northampton
19 Sept
Northampton
0 : 1 Rotherham
12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0 Northampton
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1 Crawley Town
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Cambridge Utd
2 : 1 Northampton
12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0 Northampton
29 Aug
Gillingham
1 : 1 Northampton
22 Aug
Crewe
1 : 0 Northampton
08 Aug
Leicester
1 : 0 Northampton
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13:10 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:10 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11:7 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 15 |
| 6 | York City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11:5 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10:11 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:13 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12:12 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:14 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:6 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3:6 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3:9 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | 4 |
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
