Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Criciuma vs Concordia

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Diego Goncalves
16' Event
Nicolas
45' Event
Jhonata Robert

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense game between Criciuma and Concordia finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Criciuma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Criciuma
35%
Draws
19%
Concordia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Criciuma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Criciuma carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Criciuma taking it.
  • Regular Catarinense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Criciuma here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Criciuma Clean Sheet 68%
Concordia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Criciuma Concordia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 9 6
Losses 5 16
Goals Scored 1.32 0.8
Goals Conceded 0.74 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Catarinense
Criciuma vs Concordia
4:0
Feb 12, 2026 Catarinense
Concordia vs Criciuma
2:2
Jan 19, 2026 Catarinense
Criciuma vs Concordia
3:1
Jan 19, 2025 Catarinense
Criciuma vs Concordia
2:0
Jan 24, 2024 Catarinense
Concordia vs Criciuma
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Criciuma Compare

Top Goalscorer Diego Goncalves
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nicolas
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Concordia Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Phillipe
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Criciuma 77 / 100
Concordia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Criciuma Concordia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Criciuma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Criciuma scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Concordia let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Criciuma stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Criciuma VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Criciuma

(Home)
23 Aug
Criciuma
0 : 2
Fortaleza
20 Aug
Botafogo SP
1 : 1
Criciuma
15 Aug
Criciuma
1 : 0
Goias
09 Aug
Athletic Club
2 : 0
Criciuma
26 Jul
Criciuma
0 : 0
Nautico
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Concordia

(Away)
22 Feb
Criciuma
4 : 0
Concordia
12 Feb
Concordia
2 : 2
Criciuma
07 Feb
Brusque
2 : 1
Concordia
01 Feb
Concordia
0 : 0
Brusque
25 Jan
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
5 : 1
Concordia
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brusque 6 3 3 0 9:6 12
2 Avai 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
3 Camboriu 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
4 Concordia 6 2 1 3 5:10 7
5 Marcilio Dias 6 2 0 4 6:6 6
6 Joinville 6 0 1 5 3:14 1
Promotion - Catarinense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Catarinense (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Catarina 6 3 3 0 10:5 12
2 Chapecoense-SC 6 3 2 1 11:5 11
3 Criciuma 6 3 2 1 10:8 11
4 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 6 3 0 3 8:5 9
5 Figueirense 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
6 Carlos Renaux 6 1 1 4 4:8 4
Promotion - Catarinense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Catarinense (Relegation Group)