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Cruzeiro vs Defensor Sp.

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Kaio Jorge
46'
Sub
Villalba L. In: Jonathan Jesus
Out: Villalba L.
46'
Sub
Rojas G. In: Moraes K.
Out: Rojas G.

AI Match Summary

Cruzeiro in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cruzeiro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Cruzeiro
6%
Draws
4%
Defensor Sp.
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cruzeiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cruzeiro lately — more wins on the board than Defensor Sp..
  • Win probability leans Cruzeiro's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Cruzeiro Clean Sheet 20%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cruzeiro Defensor Sp.
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 6
Draws 8 11
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Cruzeiro vs Defensor Sp.
2:0
Mar 21, 2014 Copa Libertadores
Cruzeiro vs Defensor Sp.
2:2
Mar 11, 2014 Copa Libertadores
Defensor Sp. vs Cruzeiro
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cruzeiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Jorge
1 Goals
Assists Leader Felipe Morais
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Defensor Sp. Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cruzeiro 85 / 100
Defensor Sp. 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cruzeiro Defensor Sp.

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CRU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cruzeiro scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Defensor Sp.'s defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Solid form: Cruzeiro remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cruzeiro VS Defensor Sp.
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%