Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cruzeiro vs Pouso Alegre

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Sub
Gerson In: Arroyo K.
Out: Gerson
29'
Arroyo K.
41'
Sub
Pedro Arthur In: Biel
Out: Pedro Arthur

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Cruzeiro
15%
Draws
28%
Pouso Alegre
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cruzeiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Pouso Alegre haven't matched Cruzeiro's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Cruzeiro a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Cruzeiro have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pouso Alegre, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Cruzeiro Clean Sheet 68%
Pouso Alegre Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cruzeiro Pouso Alegre
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 17 9
Draws 8 3
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.45 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Mineiro
Cruzeiro vs Pouso Alegre
1:0
Feb 21, 2026 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Cruzeiro
1:2
Jan 10, 2026 Mineiro
Cruzeiro vs Pouso Alegre
1:2
Feb 25, 2024 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Cruzeiro
0:2
Feb 8, 2023 Mineiro
Cruzeiro vs Pouso Alegre
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cruzeiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Jorge
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Pouso Alegre Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cruzeiro 59 / 100
Pouso Alegre 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cruzeiro Pouso Alegre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cruzeiro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cruzeiro's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Pouso Alegre has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Pouso Alegre lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cruzeiro VS Pouso Alegre
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cruzeiro

(Home)
20 Sept
Vitoria
1 : 3
Cruzeiro
13 Sept
Santos
2 : 1
Cruzeiro
06 Sept
Cruzeiro
3 : 1
Athletico-PR
02 Sept
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Cruzeiro
30 Aug
Vasco
3 : 1
Cruzeiro
Page 1 of 7

Pouso Alegre

(Away)
06 Jun
Madureira
1 : 0
Pouso Alegre
30 May
Pouso Alegre
1 : 2
Portuguesa
23 May
Agua Santa
2 : 0
Pouso Alegre
16 May
Pouso Alegre
0 : 2
Portuguesa RJ
09 May
Pouso Alegre
3 : 0
America RJ
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Pouso Alegre 1
Cruzeiro 3
Atletico-MG 2
America MG 1
Final
Cruzeiro 1
Atletico-MG 0