Sport Picks
Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano
Europe
Conference League 2025/2026 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig 
Match Events
20'
20'
Ciss P.
23'
23'
Palazon I.
41'
41'
Wharton A.
AI Match Summary
Crystal Palace in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
20%
33%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Crystal Palace
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Crystal Palace lately — more wins on the board than Rayo Vallecano.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Crystal Palace taking it.
- Crystal Palace have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Crystal Palace, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Crystal Palace Clean Sheet 68%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.47 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 27, 2026 Conference League
Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Crystal Palace Compare
Top Goalscorer Mateta J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Rayo Vallecano Compare
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Crystal Palace 95 / 100
Rayo Vallecano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Crystal Palace Rayo Vallecano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Crystal Palace Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Crystal Palace's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Rayo Vallecano let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Crystal Palace went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Crystal Palace VS Rayo Vallecano
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Crystal Palace
(Home) 20 Sept
Leeds
0 : 0 Crystal Palace
17 Sept
Crystal Palace
4 : 0 Lech Poznan
12 Sept
Crystal Palace
2 : 3 Ipswich
08 Sept
Crystal Palace
3 : 0 Middlesbrough
05 Sept
Fulham
2 : 3 Crystal Palace
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
Crystal Palace
4 : 0 Lech Poznan
12 Sept
Crystal Palace
2 : 3 Ipswich
08 Sept
Crystal Palace
3 : 0 Middlesbrough
28 Aug
Crystal Palace
1 : 4 Manchester City
31 Jul
Crystal Palace
3 : 1 Al-Ula
Page 1 of 4
Rayo Vallecano
(Away) 19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
15 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 1 Espanyol
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
05 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2 Racing Santander
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
15 Aug
Sevilla
2 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
08 Aug
Ipswich
3 : 0 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0
