Sport Picks
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
Tajikistan
Vysshaya Liga 2025 
Match Events
24'
24'
Pandzhshanbe E.
37'
37'
Turkaj R.
68'
68'
Lucas K.
AI Match Summary
The Vysshaya Liga 2025 game between CSKA Pomir Dushanbe and Istiqlol Dushanbe finished 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Istiqlol Dushanbe come out ahead of CSKA Pomir Dushanbe on wins alone.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe Clean Sheet 20%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | CSKA Pomir Dushanbe | Istiqlol Dushanbe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 18 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 0.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 0.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 27, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
0:0
Sep 11, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
3:3
Apr 12, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2:1
Feb 22, 2025 Tajikistan Cup
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2:0
Oct 30, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe Compare
Top Goalscorer Lucas K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Davlatov M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare
Top Goalscorer Pandzhshanbe E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Turkaj R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe 32 / 100
Istiqlol Dushanbe 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe Istiqlol Dushanbe
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Istiqlol Dushanbe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 28 matches.
Solid form: CSKA Pomir Dushanbe remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe VS Istiqlol Dushanbe
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
(Home) 26 Jun
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2 : 3 Khosilot Parkhar
12 Jun
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
1 : 2 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
16 May
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
1 : 2 Regar-TadAZ
09 May
Sardor Tursunzoda
0 : 2 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
03 May
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2 : 1 Istaravshan
Page 1 of 6
26 Jun
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2 : 3 Khosilot Parkhar
12 Jun
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
1 : 2 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
16 May
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
1 : 2 Regar-TadAZ
03 May
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2 : 1 Istaravshan
10 Apr
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2 : 1 Barkchi Hisor
Page 1 of 3
Istiqlol Dushanbe
(Away) 28 Jun
Sardor Tursunzoda
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
14 Jun
Istaravshan
1 : 2 Istiqlol Dushanbe
23 May
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 2 Regar-TadAZ
16 May
Eskhata
0 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
09 May
Istiqlol Dushanbe
2 : 0 Barkchi Hisor
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
Sardor Tursunzoda
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
14 Jun
Istaravshan
1 : 2 Istiqlol Dushanbe
16 May
Eskhata
0 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
03 May
Vakhsh
0 : 2 Istiqlol Dushanbe
19 Apr
Khosilot Parkhar
1 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol Dushanbe | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 58:18 | 50 |
| 2 | Vakhsh | 22 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 33:18 | 45 |
| 3 | CSKA Pomir Dushanbe | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 38:23 | 37 |
| 4 | Ravshan Kulob | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 26:20 | 35 |
| 5 | Khujand | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 24:25 | 31 |
| 6 | Regar-TadAZ | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 25:24 | 30 |
| 7 | Eskhata | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 31:30 | 30 |
| 8 | Barkchi Hisor | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:20 | 27 |
| 9 | Khosilot Parkhar | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27:38 | 24 |
| 10 | Istaravshan | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23:42 | 19 |
| 11 | Hulbuk | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 15:39 | 13 |
| 12 | Panjsher | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 16:41 | 12 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga 2025 (Relegation)
