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Stadium Background

CSKA Sofia III vs Kostinbrod

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West 2025/2026 game between CSKA Sofia III and Kostinbrod finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CSKA Sofia III.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
CSKA Sofia III
30%
Draws
42%
Kostinbrod
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kostinbrod

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Kostinbrod carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Third League - South-West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
CSKA Sofia III Clean Sheet 20%
Kostinbrod Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CSKA Sofia III Kostinbrod
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 9 3
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.18 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Third League - South-West
CSKA Sofia III vs Kostinbrod
1:0
Nov 15, 2025 Third League - South-West
Kostinbrod vs CSKA Sofia III
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CSKA Sofia III 32 / 100
Kostinbrod 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CSKA Sofia III Kostinbrod

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CSKA Sofia III scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Kostinbrod has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: CSKA Sofia III remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

CSKA Sofia III VS Kostinbrod
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CSKA Sofia III

(Home)
12 Sept
Levski Sofia II
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia III
05 Sept
CSKA Sofia III
3 : 2
Slavia Sofia 2
29 Aug
Botev Ihtiman
2 : 1
CSKA Sofia III
22 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 1
Kyustendil
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia III
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Kostinbrod

(Away)
12 Sept
Slivnishki Geroy
0 : 3
Kostinbrod
05 Sept
Kostinbrod
1 : 3
Septemvri Sofia 2
29 Aug
Levski Sofia II
1 : 2
Kostinbrod
23 Aug
Kostinbrod
1 : 0
Slavia Sofia 2
15 Aug
Botev Ihtiman
1 : 0
Kostinbrod
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rilski Sportist 34 25 5 4 58:23 80
2 Strumska Slava 34 20 5 9 71:45 65
3 Slavia Sofia 2 34 17 6 11 68:44 57
4 Botev Ihtiman 34 14 9 11 53:40 51
5 Kyustendil 34 15 5 14 49:52 50
6 CSKA Sofia III 34 15 5 14 49:43 50
7 Oborishte Panagyurishte 34 14 7 13 43:37 49
8 Balkan Botevgrad 34 13 10 11 50:45 49
9 Septemvri Sofia 2 34 13 9 12 50:43 48
10 Septemvri Simitli 34 13 8 13 41:40 47
11 Kostinbrod 34 14 5 15 47:51 47
12 Pirin Razlog 34 13 6 15 43:48 45
13 Bansko 34 11 11 12 39:45 44
14 Slivnishki Geroy 34 11 9 14 40:49 42
15 Levski Sofia II 34 11 7 16 30:44 40
16 Gotse Delchev 34 11 4 19 43:70 37
17 Germaneya 34 4 6 24 38:75 18
18 Bistritsa 34 11 5 18 44:62 38
Relegation - Third League - South-West 2025/2026 (Relegation)