Sport Picks

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CSKA Sofia vs Arda

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Sat, Sep 12, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CSKA Sofia host Arda in the efbet League. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. CSKA Sofia have averaged 1.52 scored and 1.06 conceded recently, against Arda's 1.24 scored and 0.97 conceded. Head-to-head, CSKA Sofia have won 3 to Arda's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 6, 2026, ending 3:1. Model xG sits at 1.55 vs 1.35, favoring CSKA Sofia. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
CSKA Sofia
15%
Draws
54%
Arda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • CSKA Sofia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Arda a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Regular efbet League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
CSKA Sofia Clean Sheet 18%
Arda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CSKA Sofia Arda
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 18 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.06 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.55 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2026 efbet League
CSKA Sofia vs Arda
3:1
Sep 18, 2025 efbet League
Arda vs CSKA Sofia
1:0
May 31, 2025 efbet League
Arda vs CSKA Sofia
2:1
Feb 26, 2025 Bulgarian Cup
CSKA Sofia vs Arda
2:1
Feb 16, 2025 efbet League
CSKA Sofia vs Arda
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CSKA Sofia 23 / 100
Arda 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CSKA Sofia Arda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CSKA Sofia scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

CSKA Sofia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Arda conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

CSKA Sofia VS Arda
2.25 Goals Scored 1.57
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.86
88% Over 1.5 71%
88% Over 2.5 43%
38% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

CSKA Sofia

(Home)
05 Sept
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
30 Aug
CSKA Sofia
3 : 1
Cherno More
27 Aug
CSKA Sofia
0 : 2
OFI Crete
20 Aug
OFI Crete
3 : 0
CSKA Sofia
16 Aug
CSKA Sofia
5 : 0
Botev Vratsa
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Arda

(Away)
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0
Botev Vratsa
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
17 Aug
Arda
3 : 1
Lok. Sofia
08 Aug
Dunav Ruse
0 : 2
Arda
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 8 8 0 0 21:4 24
2 Ludogorets 8 6 2 0 14:6 20
3 CSKA Sofia 7 5 2 0 17:5 17
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 8 5 1 2 15:8 16
5 Arda 8 5 1 2 13:7 16
6 Slavia Sofia 8 2 4 2 8:6 10
7 Botev Plovdiv 8 3 1 4 11:14 10
8 Spartak Varna 8 2 3 3 10:14 9
9 Septemvri Sofia 8 2 2 4 7:13 8
10 Botev Vratsa 8 2 1 5 7:17 7
11 Lok. Plovdiv 8 2 0 6 4:10 6
12 Cherno More 8 1 1 6 8:17 4
13 Dunav Ruse 8 1 1 6 7:15 4
14 Lok. Sofia 7 0 3 4 8:14 3
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)