Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CSKA Sofia vs Arda - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Karagaren B.
Assist: Ivanov S.
34'
Yankov D.
41' Event
Sensi S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The efbet League game between CSKA Sofia and Arda finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CSKA Sofia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
CSKA Sofia
30%
Draws
23%
Arda
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CSKA Sofia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • CSKA Sofia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives CSKA Sofia a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular efbet League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
CSKA Sofia Clean Sheet 68%
Arda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CSKA Sofia Arda
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.93 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 efbet League
CSKA Sofia vs Arda
4:1
Feb 6, 2026 efbet League
CSKA Sofia vs Arda
3:1
Sep 18, 2025 efbet League
Arda vs CSKA Sofia
1:0
May 31, 2025 efbet League
Arda vs CSKA Sofia
2:1
Feb 26, 2025 Bulgarian Cup
CSKA Sofia vs Arda
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CSKA Sofia Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Pereira
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zwarts J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Arda Compare

Top Goalscorer Karagaren B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CSKA Sofia 95 / 100
Arda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CSKA Sofia Arda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CSKA Sofia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CSKA Sofia scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Arda has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: CSKA Sofia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

CSKA Sofia VS Arda
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CSKA Sofia

(Home)
26 Oct
CSKA Sofia
2 : 0
Ludogorets
22 Oct
Nordsjaelland
2 : 2
CSKA Sofia
18 Oct
Nesebar
0 : 2
CSKA Sofia
15 Oct
CSKA Sofia
1 : 2
Monaco
11 Oct
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 3
CSKA Sofia
Page 1 of 6

Arda

(Away)
27 Oct
Arda
1 : 1
Levski Sofia
18 Oct
Spartak Plovdiv
1 : 2
Arda
12 Oct
Ludogorets
5 : 0
Arda
02 Oct
Lok. Plovdiv
2 : 0
Arda
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1
Cherno More
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CSKA Sofia 12 9 3 0 29:9 30
2 Levski Sofia 11 9 2 0 24:5 29
3 Ludogorets 11 8 2 1 21:9 26
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 12 8 1 3 25:13 25
5 Botev Plovdiv 12 6 1 5 17:18 19
6 Arda 12 5 3 4 16:18 18
7 Spartak Varna 12 3 4 5 11:17 13
8 Slavia Sofia 12 2 6 4 9:9 12
9 Dunav Ruse 12 3 2 7 15:21 11
10 Botev Vratsa 12 2 4 6 10:21 10
11 Lok. Plovdiv 12 2 3 7 6:14 9
12 Lok. Sofia 12 1 6 5 13:20 9
13 Cherno More 12 2 3 7 13:22 9
14 Septemvri Sofia 12 2 2 8 10:23 8
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)