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CSM Sacele vs Progresul Mogosoaia

Romania Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CSM Sacele in this Liga 3 - Seria 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored CSM Sacele.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
CSM Sacele
15%
Draws
46%
Progresul Mogosoaia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Progresul Mogosoaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Progresul Mogosoaia have won more games recently than CSM Sacele.
  • Model gives CSM Sacele a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and CSM Sacele have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
CSM Sacele Clean Sheet 10%
Progresul Mogosoaia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CSM Sacele Progresul Mogosoaia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 4 2
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.39 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga 3 - Seria 4
CSM Sacele vs Progresul Mogosoaia
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 Liga 3 - Seria 4
CSM Sacele vs Progresul Mogosoaia
3:1
Oct 25, 2025 Liga 3 - Seria 4
Progresul Mogosoaia vs CSM Sacele
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CSM Sacele 34 / 100
Progresul Mogosoaia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CSM Sacele Progresul Mogosoaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: CSM Sacele scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Progresul Mogosoaia conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

CSM Sacele went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CSM Sacele VS Progresul Mogosoaia
0.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CSM Sacele

(Home)
19 Sept
Olimpic Zarnesti
1 : 0
CSM Sacele
12 Sept
CSM Sacele
0 : 3
Sepsi 2
04 Sept
Inter Sibiu
0 : 1
CSM Sacele
29 Aug
CSM Sacele
2 : 1
Kids Tampa Brasov
05 Aug
CSM Corona Brasov
3 : 0
CSM Sacele
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Progresul Mogosoaia

(Away)
19 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
0 : 3
Din. Bucuresti 2
12 Sept
Progresul Spartac
1 : 2
Progresul Mogosoaia
04 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
1 : 0
Voluntari 2
28 Aug
CSM Alexandria
2 : 2
Progresul Mogosoaia
12 Aug
Progresul Mogosoaia
1 : 4
Concordia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flacara Moreni 22 16 4 2 53:19 52
2 Stefanesti 22 15 4 3 54:26 49
3 Olimpic Zarnesti 22 12 6 4 59:37 42
4 Urban Titu 22 8 5 9 30:37 29
5 Tricolorul Breaza 22 8 4 10 27:37 28
6 CSO Teleajenul Valenii de Munte 22 7 7 8 26:38 28
7 CSM Sacele 22 7 4 11 29:38 25
8 Baicoi 22 6 7 9 24:33 25
9 Progresul Mogosoaia 22 7 3 12 30:34 24
10 AS Vointa Crevedia 22 6 5 11 24:35 23
11 Kids Tampa Brasov 22 6 5 11 28:40 23
12 FC Pucioasa 22 6 2 14 29:39 20
Relegation - Liga 3 - Seria 4 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)